Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
On the radar
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In Serbia real wage growth reached 9.7% y/y in February.
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In Hungary unemployment was released at 4.4%.
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In Slovakia producer prices decreased by 15% annually.
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AT 10.30 AM CET Slovenia will publish retail sales growth in March.
Economic developments
In 2023, more than 75% (195.7 million) of the EU's 20 to 64-year-olds were employed, the highest share recorded since the start of the time series in 2009. Among the EU countries, the highest employment rates were recorded in the Netherlands (84%), Sweden (83%) and Estonia (82%). The lowest rates were recorded in Italy (66%), Greece (67%) and Romania (69%). Looking at the CEE region, only in Croatia and Romania employment is below the EU average in case of both, males and females. In other CEE countries employment rates are higher, with Czechia standing out in case of male employment (88.4% vs. 80.4% in the EU). The gap between male and female employment remains around 10 percentage points. If we look at the comparison to the country with the highest employment in the EU, that is the Netherlands, then all CEE countries seem to still have some capacities to increase total employment. Czechia and Hungary only by 2 to 3 percentage points, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia by roughly 6 percentage points while Romania by as much as 15 percentage points.
Market movements
This week, the Czech koruna gained against the euro alongside the Hungarian forint. On the other hand, the Polish zloty is marginally weaker compared to the beginning of the week. As for the bond market, only in Hungary and Poland long-term yields are marginally lower this week. Czech government announced that fiscal consolidation in 2025 will be lower than initially planned due to parliamentary elections. Romania holds the auctions of 2026 and 2033 enjoying solid demand for the government papers.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
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