EUR/AUD 1H Chart: Channel Down

EUR/AUD 1H Chart: Channel Down

Comment: An encounter with the resistance at 1.53 in mid-December did not bode well for the bullish momentum of EUR/AUD—since then the Euro has already lost nearly 4.8%. Assuming the currency pair has also formed a bearish channel during the second part of December, the sell-off is likely to persist. This scenario is also confirmed by the four-hour and daily indicators, though not all of them are pointing south. Meanwhile, the decline may not be immediate—we might see an extension of the current rally up to 1.48 before another downswing to the falling support line. On a related note, most of the SWFX traders are bearish—58% of open positions are short.

USD/NOK 1H Chart: Channel Up

Comment: Following an eventless second half of December the US Dollar resumed appreciation against the Norwegian Krone. However, considering that USD/NOK is currently trading next to the upper boundary of the channel, which is reinforced by the recent highs and weekly R2 level, the currency pair is likely to retreat from 7.80/7.77 to the support at 7.70.

In case the resistance fails to contain the buying pressure, the rate is likely to rise up to 7.90, namely the Dec 16 high. As for the SWFX sentiment, most of the traders are long the US Dollar—61% of open positions are long, even though the technical indicators are mixed.