US Dollar: Dec '21 USD is Down at 93.790.

Energies: Nov '21 Crude is Up at 81.40.

Financials: The Dec '21 30 Year bond is Up 1 tick and trading at 159.22.

Indices: The Dec '21 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 122 ticks Higher and trading at 4385.50. 

Gold: The Dec'21 Gold contract is trading Up at 1798.20.  Gold is 35 ticks Higher than its close.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is Down and Crude is Up which is normal but the 30 year Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.   Currently Asia is trading Mixed with half the exchanges Higher and the other half Lower.  All of Europe is trading Higher at this time.

Possible challenges to traders today

  • PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

  • Core PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

  • Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

  • FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 10 AM EST.  This is Major.

  • Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

  • Crude Oil Inventories are out at 11 AM EST.  This is Major.

  • FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 1 PM EST.  This is Major.

Treasuries

Traders please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 30 year (ZB) to the 10 year (ZN). They work exactly the same.  

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 10 year bond (ZN) and The S&P futures contract.  The S&P contract is the Standard and Poor's and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZN made it's move at around 8:40 AM EST.  The ZN hit a Low at around that time and the S&P moved Lower.  If you look at the charts below ZN gave a signal at around 8:40 AM EST and the S&P moved Lower at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZN hit a Low at around 8:40 AM EST and the S&P was moving Lower shortly thereafter.  These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 15 minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 10 year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 ticks per contract on this trade.   Each tick is worth $15.625.  Please note: the front month for the ZN is now Dec '21.  The S&P contract is now Dec '21 as well.  I've changed the format to Renko bars such that it may be more apparent and visible.  

Charts courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform

Chart

ZN - Dec 2021 - 10/13/21

Chart

S&P - Dec 2021 - 10/13/21

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral bias as we didn't see any semblance of correlation Wednesday morning.  The Dow closed Lower by about half a point, but the other exchanges traded slightly Higher.  All in all a Neutral or Mixed day.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Neutral.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market. 

Commentary

A funny thing happened yesterday as the markets opened they migrated Lower until 10 AM EST.  What happened at that time?  Actor William Shatner who portraited Captain Kirk of Star Trek fame finally rode into space at the age of 90.  William Shatner is the oldest man ever to attempt a voyage into the Final Frontier and couldn't say enough about it.  At the age of 90 he sounded like a  teenager.  After 10 AM EST the Dow migrated Higher and didn't look back.  Coincidence?  Maybe or perhaps this awakens the idealism in all of us.

 

Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. The following Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disclaimer should be noted.

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Trading in the commodities markets involves substantial risk and YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY, and thus is not appropriate for everyone. You should carefully consider your financial condition before trading in these markets, and only risk capital should be used.

In addition, these markets are often liquid, making it difficult to execute orders at desired prices. Also, during periods of extreme volatility, trading in these markets may be halted due to so-called “circuit breakers” put in place by the CME to alleviate such volatility. In the event of a trading halt, it may be difficult or impossible to exit a losing position.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD remains vulnerable near 1.1600 amid firmer dollar

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1600, on the defensive amid a broadly stronger US dollar. Markets cheer US-Sino talks and stimulus progress despite looming inflation fears. The Fed-ECB monetary policy divergence weighs down on the euro. US Consumer Confidence data awaited.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD hovers around 1.3750, Brexit talks in London eyed

GBP/USD is trading above 1.3750, struggling for a clear direction after Monday’s rebound. Market sentiment improves on stimulus hopes, US-Sino talks but the dollar remains firmer. UK’s Frost offers EU December deadline to solve the row over the NI proposal. All eyes on the Brexit talks in London.

GBP/USD News

Acceptance above 100/200-day SMAs favours XAU/USD bulls

Gold regained positive traction on Monday and inched back closer to multi-week tops. Fresh COVID-19 jitters benefitted the safe-haven metal. A stronger USD, hawkish central bank outlooks kept a lid on any meaningful upside.

Gold News

Traders book profits from Shiba Inu to push Dogecoin to $0.34

Dogecoin price could see some incoming speculative money from profit-taking in Shiba Inu A bullish close above the Cloud on the daily chart indicates future upswing likely. The outperformance of Shiba Inu is likely as Dogecoin lags the majority of the market.

Read more

Conference Board Consumer Confidence October Preview: Watch what we do... Premium

Confidence expected to slip to 108.3 from 109.3 in September. Michigan Consumer Sentiment eroded slightly in October. Sentiment seems divorced from labor market and Retail Sales. Federal Reserve taper will not hinge on a happy US consumer.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures