Brian Twomey
Brian's Investment
GDP as a release offers Income, savings, disposable. Then comes a broad category of industry contributions to GDP such as durable goods and healthcare and profits by industry. GDP as a release is an extremely broad and generalized category.
Inflation as next release is the breakdown of GDP. For GDP, Motor Vehicle and parts contributed -0.5 for the 4th Quarter of 2023. Vehicles for Inflation in the same Q3 offered 0.2 and 0.6 for used cars and trucks.
Imports for Vehicles and parts contributed 0 for Q23 and 0.1 to exports. An import or export was not responsible to the high inflation price.
The detail to every traded good or service is found within the 100's upon 100's of subject categories to Imports and Exports.
If Automobiles was the interest then 0.2 for Automotive vehicles, parts and engines contributed to Imports in March, Transportation equipment excluding motor vehicles offered Imports at 1.6. Passengers cars offered 0 to Exports. The detail is endless.
The current largest trade partners for Imports and exports since 2022 are France, Mexico and Latin America. All catapulted trade within 2023 and 2024.
Imports and exports
Position, Price and trade covers all traded markets. What are markets. Commodities, Interest rates, stocks, currencies. Under Commodities is a broad category of Agriculture, metals, Oil / Petroleum.
Current Exports trade above Imports since 2019 while Imports traded above Exports from 2019 to 2014. Powell's 75 point interest rate drop in 2019 changed the lines and markets. Import and Export lines correrelate from 1 to 10 year monthly avrrages at +90%. Its impossible not to correlate at 90% because Import and Export lines are the exact same lines.
Export lines are the big movers while Imports follow. Both are averages and both cover trades in all markets. Interest rates force big moves to the lines dating 10 year monthly averages.
EUR/USD dropped 1.09% from January to February at 1.1038 to 1.0694 while Imports traveled +28% and +67 to Exports.
Export and Import lines are overbought.
Export Targets: 146.95, 143.23, 156.54, 153.65
Import Targets: 138.90, 144.33, 144.27, 142.44.
Fed funds vs markets
Fed funds at 5.33 trades above 65 year monthly averages. The 771 monthly average or 65 years trades 4.79, 760 monthly average or 64 years trades 4.81, 748 monthly average 0r 63 years trades 4.86. In 65 years of monthly data, 5.33 is still not found.
As markets trade in the 3rd of 4 quadrants within a 50 year period, the next few years to markets should trade volatile as markets correct to normal from its extreme abnormal position.
Targets
GBP/USD from FX Weekly, target 1.2491, highs 1.2483, GBP/AUD 1.9300's.
FX next week
EUR/USD and DXY remain in a crucial position to a possible crossover. The low price to EUR/USD coincides to the high overbought DXY price.
Currencies most affected are anchor pairs USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD and NZD.
Required is movements as DXY lower and EUR/USD higher in order for markets to trade normally again.
The move is coming as viewed from GBP/USD 1.2479 Vs USD/CAD at 1.3757. The range trades extraordinarily high at 1200 pips
The weekly trade long holds as EUR/USD trades deeply oversold. Current big break for EUR/USD next week is located at 1.0775 and 1.0775 coincides to the correct 20 day average at 1.0773. Then EUR/USD targets 1.0850, 1.0899 and 1.0963.
EUR's universe trades fairly neutral to EUR/CHF. Longs must hold 0.9654. EUR/CAD trades neutral and longs must hold 1.4667.
Overbought EUR/AUD, EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD align as best trades for next week. Lower for EUR/AUD must break 1.6516 while EUR/NZD targets 1.7933 and 1.7913.
GBP/USD higher must break a cluster of prices at 1.2573 and 1.2584 and the same as EUR/USD for the 20 day average.
GBP/USD must break 1.2481 then 1.2573 and 1.2584 to target easily 1.2584.
USD/JPY's problem since the interest rate change is most vital interest rates in the Japanese Markets traded 0 to dead. This allowed lower interest rates to turn positive. This took 1 month as all averages and interest rates now align as positive.
USD/JPY targets the break at 153.06 then 152.52 and 151.99.
GBP/JPY again trades neutral and targets 192.23 then 191.61. EUR/JPY targets 164.31 then 163.48. CAD/JPY targets 111.90 then 111.39.
Anchor pairs are the best trades as opposed to cross pair due to oversold and extremely low prices.
AUD/USD higher must0.6524 and NZD/USD 0.6021.
GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD shorts for next week, shorts for EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD, Shorts for GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD. GBP/AUD is best to target 1.9295 easily.
USD/CHF and USD/CAD remain deeply overbought along with DXY.
Trading currencies and other financial instruments carries a degree of loss and possible loss of entire investments. Please managed your own risks, stop loss, and margins requirements.
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