PCE was out yesterday, showed that the Inflation is stable. Also, on Wednesday speculators wanted to see if Powell will stay hawkish or be even more aggressive; he was the complete opposite, despite still good jobs data in last few months (it's below 4%). From this we can assume that even if jobs data will stay fine today, Powell will stick to his plan, because he did not mention that next decision will depend on jobs. He said 100K is the line for creation/destruction of jobs. But if suddenly jobs will get worse, then this will be another confirmation for slowing down the hiking pace, which is not impossible, considering that economy is slowing down. But of course it really depends how big would be the potential NFP miss, below 100k would likely cause a shock on stocks which eventually can lead to DXY rally later, but only for a correction IMO.
There will be pullbacks of course. Here is the Elliott wave count I am looking at; potential impulse from a monthly channel top.
I will turn back bullish if I see strong bounce back to 109.
BLACK FRIDAY Monthly 50% Off Lifetime Crypto, FX and major Global Markets. Apply here.
By using Wavetraders website, any services, products, and content contained here, you agree that use of our service is entirely at your own risk. You understand that there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading on the markets. We assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. The charts, and all articles published on www.wavetraders.com are provided for informational and educational purposes only!
By using the information and services of www.ew-forecast.com you assume full responsibility for any and all gains and losses, financial, emotional or otherwise, experienced, suffered or incurred by you.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD rebounds from multi-week lows, trades above 1.0750
EUR/USD came under heavy bearish pressure and declined to its weakest level in three weeks below 1.0750 on Friday after the stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls data. Week-end flows, however, helped the pair erase its daily losses.
GBP/USD remains on track to snap three-week winning streak
GBP/USD recovered toward 1.2550 after coming in within a touching distance of 1.2500 in the second half of the day after Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 199,000 for November. Despite the recent rebound, the pair remains on track to snap a three-week winning streak.
Gold retreats below $2,020 as US yields push higher
Gold broke below its daily range and declined toward $2,010 with the immediate reaction to the upbeat US November jobs report. Although XAU/USD managed to recover toward $2,020, rising US Treasury bond yields triggered another leg lower.
Bitcoin price could retrace to $42,000 if US Nonfarm Payroll comes in at 180,000
Bitcoin price just like other assets, is highly impacted by the macro-financial developments. This includes the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released by the BLS of the United States.
The week ahead – Fed, ECB and Bank of England rate decisions
When the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged back in November for the second meeting in a row there was still the distinct possibility that the final meeting of 2023 would provide the possibility of one more rate rise to round off the year in line with Fed policymakers dot plot forecasts of 5.6%.