EURUSD has retraced about 75% of the downtrend from the August 2015 high of 1.1713 to the December 2015 low of 1.0521 after crossing above the 1.14 handle on Thursday. The pair has been setting higher highs and higher lows since the December trough to move in an ascending channel. The 50-day moving average recently crossed above the 200-day moving average in what is a bullish signal but the flatlining 200-day moving average puts into question the strength of the bullish cross.
Both the RSI and the MACD are in positive territory, supporting the positive bias in the near to medium term. Though, with RSI just below overbought level, the current upward momentum may reverse soon. Resistance is likely to come around 1.1480 where prices have previously struggled to close above it.
To the downside, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at around 1.1255 is the nearest support level within sight. A sharper downside move beyond this level could see prices approach the 50% Fibonacci level at around 1.1115, which also coincides with the 50-day moving average. A break below this level would weaken the current positive bias.
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The US data calendar remains relatively light, with initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan survey being the key focus. However, these releases may not provide a significant catalyst for the next directional move in the US Dollar.