Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro started day at the back foot, as fresh acceleration of pullback from yesterday’s rally peak at 1.1218, retraced 76.4% of 1.1151/1.1218 rally.
Data-driven rally did not manage to sustain gains, being capped at 1.1218 pivot (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1341/1.1143 downleg) and also closed below daily 10SMA (currently marking initial resistance at 1.1213).
Near-term studies show bearish alignment and keep in play downside risk of retesting strong 1.1151/42 support zone.
On the other side, daily technicals maintain bullish tone, as daily Slow Stochastic reversed from oversold zone and north-heading Momentum studies. Sustained break above 10SMA and yesterday’s high at 1.1218, is needed to confirm formation of higher low at 1.1142 and further retracement of 1.1341/1.1142 downleg.
Meantime, prolonged consolidation could be anticipated, while 1.1142/1.1218 range boundaries limit near-term price action.
Downside twist of daily Ichimoku cloud, gives negative signal and bearish scenario could be activated on violation of key near-term support at 1.1142.
Res: 1.1200; 1.1218; 1.1265; 1.1300
Sup: 1.1167; 1.1151; 1.1142; 1.1080
GBPUSD
Cable maintains bullish near-term bias, consolidating yesterday’s rally that peaked at 1.4281 (50% retracement of 1.4512/1.4056 descend / daily Tenkan-sen line). Near-term consolidation holds between daily 10 and 30SMA’s (1.4265/1.4189 respectively), with mixed structure of daily studies, so far lacking clear direction, despite yesterday’s strong rally.
Increased downside risk could be expected on violation of 30SMA support, which also lies at Fibo 38.2% of 1.4056/1.4281 rally, while renewed strength through 10SMA and yesterday’s peak, would signal fresh upside action and expose immediate barrier (falling daily cloud base / Fibo 61.8% of 1.4512/1.4056) at 1.4338.
Res: 1.4265; 1.4281; 1.4338; 1.4395
Sup: 1.4189; 1.4168; 1.4142; 1.4105
USDJPY
The pair is back to strength and posts fresh high, after seventh consecutive bullish daily close. Shallow correction from yesterday’s high at 113.36, was contained at 113.13, with subsequent bounce, maintaining overall bullish tone.
Bullish setup of daily 10, 20 and 30SMA’s, underpins near-term bulls, together with thick hourly cloud, spanned between 113.35 and 112.97.
Bulls are eyeing key near-term barriers at 114.50 zone (former consolidation top); daily cloud base at 114.62 and Fibo 38.2% of larger 121.47/110.65 descend at 114.78, break of which is needed to confirm base and signal recovery.
Res: 113.72; 114.00; 114.50; 114.65
Sup : 113.13; 112.97; 112.55; 112.27
AUDUSD
The pair holds overall bullish tone, after corrective pullback off 0.7678 peak was contained above rising daily 20 SMA, which now offers initial support at 0.7502. However, upside attempts were so far capped by daily 10SMA at 0.7562, with subsequent easing from session high, increasing downside pressure on already weak near-term technicals.
Downside extension below 20SMA, would signal further weakness and risk return to key near-term support at 0.7475 (24 Mar low), to possibly trigger stronger correction of larger bull-phase that commenced from 0.6826 (2016 low) and peaked at 0.7678 (2016 high).
Res: 0.7562; 0.7601; 0.7647; 0.7685
Sup: 0.7511; 0.7491; 0.7475; 0.7412
The Euro started day at the back foot, as fresh acceleration of pullback from yesterday’s rally peak at 1.1218, retraced 76.4% of 1.1151/1.1218 rally.
Data-driven rally did not manage to sustain gains, being capped at 1.1218 pivot (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1341/1.1143 downleg) and also closed below daily 10SMA (currently marking initial resistance at 1.1213).
Near-term studies show bearish alignment and keep in play downside risk of retesting strong 1.1151/42 support zone.
On the other side, daily technicals maintain bullish tone, as daily Slow Stochastic reversed from oversold zone and north-heading Momentum studies. Sustained break above 10SMA and yesterday’s high at 1.1218, is needed to confirm formation of higher low at 1.1142 and further retracement of 1.1341/1.1142 downleg.
Meantime, prolonged consolidation could be anticipated, while 1.1142/1.1218 range boundaries limit near-term price action.
Downside twist of daily Ichimoku cloud, gives negative signal and bearish scenario could be activated on violation of key near-term support at 1.1142.
Res: 1.1200; 1.1218; 1.1265; 1.1300
Sup: 1.1167; 1.1151; 1.1142; 1.1080
GBPUSD
Cable maintains bullish near-term bias, consolidating yesterday’s rally that peaked at 1.4281 (50% retracement of 1.4512/1.4056 descend / daily Tenkan-sen line). Near-term consolidation holds between daily 10 and 30SMA’s (1.4265/1.4189 respectively), with mixed structure of daily studies, so far lacking clear direction, despite yesterday’s strong rally.
Increased downside risk could be expected on violation of 30SMA support, which also lies at Fibo 38.2% of 1.4056/1.4281 rally, while renewed strength through 10SMA and yesterday’s peak, would signal fresh upside action and expose immediate barrier (falling daily cloud base / Fibo 61.8% of 1.4512/1.4056) at 1.4338.
Res: 1.4265; 1.4281; 1.4338; 1.4395
Sup: 1.4189; 1.4168; 1.4142; 1.4105
USDJPY
The pair is back to strength and posts fresh high, after seventh consecutive bullish daily close. Shallow correction from yesterday’s high at 113.36, was contained at 113.13, with subsequent bounce, maintaining overall bullish tone.
Bullish setup of daily 10, 20 and 30SMA’s, underpins near-term bulls, together with thick hourly cloud, spanned between 113.35 and 112.97.
Bulls are eyeing key near-term barriers at 114.50 zone (former consolidation top); daily cloud base at 114.62 and Fibo 38.2% of larger 121.47/110.65 descend at 114.78, break of which is needed to confirm base and signal recovery.
Res: 113.72; 114.00; 114.50; 114.65
Sup : 113.13; 112.97; 112.55; 112.27
AUDUSD
The pair holds overall bullish tone, after corrective pullback off 0.7678 peak was contained above rising daily 20 SMA, which now offers initial support at 0.7502. However, upside attempts were so far capped by daily 10SMA at 0.7562, with subsequent easing from session high, increasing downside pressure on already weak near-term technicals.
Downside extension below 20SMA, would signal further weakness and risk return to key near-term support at 0.7475 (24 Mar low), to possibly trigger stronger correction of larger bull-phase that commenced from 0.6826 (2016 low) and peaked at 0.7678 (2016 high).
Res: 0.7562; 0.7601; 0.7647; 0.7685
Sup: 0.7511; 0.7491; 0.7475; 0.7412
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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