AUDUSD - rally on strong GDP data eyes 200SMA breakpoint

EURUSD
The Euro trades around daily cloud top, which was penetrated on yesterday’s weakness that posted fresh low at 1.0832. Near-term price action consolidates within narrow range, holding negative sentiment, despite yesterday’s close in Doji candle.
Firm bearish setup of daily MA’s, with 10/200SMA’s Golden cross and 10/30SMA’s bearish cross, along with indicators establishing in the negative territory, keeps the pair under pressure.
Trough of 29 Jan at 1.0808 and daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.0788, are next targets, with key short-term support at 1.0709, 05 Jan annual low, being in focus, as the pair looks for full retracement of 1.0709/1.1374 rally.
Consolidation top and Asian high at 1.0879, marks initial resistance, ahead of thick hourly cloud, spanned between 1.0895 and 1.0965, which is expected to limit extended upticks.
Rising stocks keep the single currency under pressure, while on fundamental side, today’s US ADP data, usually used as indicator for NFP data that are due on Friday (forecasted at 185K vs 205K in Jan), will be key release today.


Res: 1.0879; 1.0895; 1.0965; 1.1000
Sup: 1.0845; 1.0832; 1.0808; 1.0788








GBPUSD

Two-day recovery from fresh low at 1.3943, was unable to sustain yesterday’s attempt above psychological 1.40 barrier, as rally stalled at 1.4016, keeping for now intact initial and pivotal barriers at 1.4040/43 (26 Feb lower top / falling daily 10SMA).
Yesterday’s daily candle with long upper shadow, signals fresh selling interest, which may indicate stall of reversal, as daily technicals are in strong bearish setup.
However, extended correction cannot be ruled out, as reversed daily Slow Stochastic shows more room upside.
Violation of 10SMA barrier would expose1.4151 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.4665/1.3834 descend), which marks significant barrier, followed by descending daily 20SMA, which crossed below 30SMA and currently lies at 1.4245, also mid-point of 1.4665/1.3834 downleg.

Res: 1.3985; 1.4016; 1.4043; 1.4151
Sup: 1.3902; 1.3834; 1.3720; 1.3680









USDCAD

Loonie continues to strengthen against the greenback, supported by fresh rallies of oil price. The pair fell further yesterday, leaving long red daily candle, with former support at 1.3539 Fibo 61.8% of 1.2829/1.4688 rally, now acting as good resistance.
Firm bearish tone of daily studies, keeps the downside pressured for extension towards strong support zone at 1.3303/1.3267 (50% retracement of larger 1.1917/1.4688 rally / 200SMA, which marks med-term breakpoint.
Focus is at oil price, which cracked key barrier at 34.79 (WTI), with sustained break higher, to send USDCAD to fresh lows of extended correction from 1.4688 peak.
Such scenario may attract psychological 1.30 support for retest, in the short-term.
At the upside, 1.3611, falling daily 10SMA, which formed 10/100SMA’s bear cross, offers next strong barrier above 1.3548 (yesterday’s high, just above broken Fibo 61.8% barrier).

Res: 1.3480; 1.3548; 1.3611; 1.3660
Sup : 1.3383; 1.3303; 1.3267; 1.3036






AUDUSD

Aussie stabilizes above 0.72 handle, which was taken out on overnight rally, driven by better-than-expected Australian GDP data.
Recovery rally from 0.71 zone, where higher base is forming, approaches key near-term barrier at 0.7257 (near-term congestion tops, reinforced by 200SMA), which needs to be cleared for bullish resumption of recovery rally from 0.6825 low.
Bullish daily technicals are supportive for final attempt through breakpoint at 0.7257. Daily 10SMA, broken on today’s rally, offers initial support at 0.718, followed by 20SMA / Fibo 38.2% of 0.6972/0.7257 at 0.7147.

Res: 0.7257; 0.7300; 0.7325; 0.7383
Sup: 0.7177; 0.7147; 0.7100; 0.7067