Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro maintains positive near-term tone, which resulted in three-day recovery that broke above daily Ichimoku cloud base and cracked important 1.09 barrier. Renewed attempts to sustain break above 1.09 are under way, as fresh rally from 1.0868, session low, so far tested 1.0925, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1058/1.0709 downleg.
Structure of daily studies shows mixed setup of MA’s, while indicators hold in neutrality zone and Ichimoku studies maintaining positive setup.
Daily close above 1.0925 is needed to resume recovery towards key barriers at 1.0980 zone, short-term congestion tops and 1.1006, daily Ichimoku cloud top.
On the downside, pivotal support lies at 1.0860, daily cloud base, reinforced by daily 20SMA.
Break and close below here will weaken near-term structure.
Res: 1.0925; 1.0950; 1.0983; 1.1006
Sup: 1.0868; 1.0860; 1.0836; 1.0817
USDJPY
The pair consolidates under yesterday’s fresh high at 119.04, posted on a probe of recovery rally from 115.95, above pivotal 118.93/119 resistance zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 123.74/115.95 descend / psychological support.
Rally was capped by descending daily 30SMA, with break and close above 118.93 barrier, required to signal further recovery and expose next targets at 119.53, Fibonacci 76.4% of 120.64/115.95 and psychological 120 barrier.
Bullishly aligned near-term studies are supportive, along with north-heading daily indicators.
On the other side, daily slow Stochastic is overbought and may trigger fresh easing, if bearish signal will be generated.
Daily 20SMA offers pivotal support at 118.13.
Res: 118.93; 119.10; 119.53; 120.00
Sup: 118.39; 118.13; 117.93; 117.64
USDCAD
The pair shows initial signals of basing, given by long-tailed yesterday’s candle, despite posting fresh, marginally lower low at 1.4027.
Narrow consolidation is under way, showing no significant reaction on stronger oil, so far.
Daily studies show mixed setup – conflicting MA’s; negative momentum and oversold slow Stochastic, which is still heading south.
More room is still seen at the downside, but while pivotal support at 1.3978 holds, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2829/1.4688 rally, possibility of near-term basing attempts will remain in play.
Recovery needs confirmation on break through hourly cloud , spanned between 1.4142 and 1.4183, to expose next upside breakpoint at 1.4221, daily 20SMA.
Otherwise sustained break below 1.3978 pivot, will trigger further correction and expose next significant support at 1.3800, 28 Dec / 04 Jan higher base.
Res: 1.4154; 1.4183; 1.4212; 1.4278
Sup: 1.4028; 1.4000; 1.3978; 1.3900
AUDUSD
The pair jumped to 0.7081 and tested daily 30SMA, on a rally from 0.7005, overnight’s correction low. Extension of the fourth, corrective wave, from 0.6826, would look for test of psychological 0.7100 barrier and strong 0.7134 resistance, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7325/0.6825 downleg.
Firm bearish tone prevails on lower timeframes, with today’s action being contained by daily 20SMA at 0.7008, now acting as pivotal support.
On the other side, daily slow Stochastic is entering overbought territory and giving initial signal of consolidation in the near-term.
Res: 0.7081; 0.7100; 0.7134; 0.7200
Sup: 0.7030; 0.7005; 0.6960; 0.6917
The Euro maintains positive near-term tone, which resulted in three-day recovery that broke above daily Ichimoku cloud base and cracked important 1.09 barrier. Renewed attempts to sustain break above 1.09 are under way, as fresh rally from 1.0868, session low, so far tested 1.0925, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1058/1.0709 downleg.
Structure of daily studies shows mixed setup of MA’s, while indicators hold in neutrality zone and Ichimoku studies maintaining positive setup.
Daily close above 1.0925 is needed to resume recovery towards key barriers at 1.0980 zone, short-term congestion tops and 1.1006, daily Ichimoku cloud top.
On the downside, pivotal support lies at 1.0860, daily cloud base, reinforced by daily 20SMA.
Break and close below here will weaken near-term structure.
Res: 1.0925; 1.0950; 1.0983; 1.1006
Sup: 1.0868; 1.0860; 1.0836; 1.0817
USDJPY
The pair consolidates under yesterday’s fresh high at 119.04, posted on a probe of recovery rally from 115.95, above pivotal 118.93/119 resistance zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 123.74/115.95 descend / psychological support.
Rally was capped by descending daily 30SMA, with break and close above 118.93 barrier, required to signal further recovery and expose next targets at 119.53, Fibonacci 76.4% of 120.64/115.95 and psychological 120 barrier.
Bullishly aligned near-term studies are supportive, along with north-heading daily indicators.
On the other side, daily slow Stochastic is overbought and may trigger fresh easing, if bearish signal will be generated.
Daily 20SMA offers pivotal support at 118.13.
Res: 118.93; 119.10; 119.53; 120.00
Sup: 118.39; 118.13; 117.93; 117.64
USDCAD
The pair shows initial signals of basing, given by long-tailed yesterday’s candle, despite posting fresh, marginally lower low at 1.4027.
Narrow consolidation is under way, showing no significant reaction on stronger oil, so far.
Daily studies show mixed setup – conflicting MA’s; negative momentum and oversold slow Stochastic, which is still heading south.
More room is still seen at the downside, but while pivotal support at 1.3978 holds, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2829/1.4688 rally, possibility of near-term basing attempts will remain in play.
Recovery needs confirmation on break through hourly cloud , spanned between 1.4142 and 1.4183, to expose next upside breakpoint at 1.4221, daily 20SMA.
Otherwise sustained break below 1.3978 pivot, will trigger further correction and expose next significant support at 1.3800, 28 Dec / 04 Jan higher base.
Res: 1.4154; 1.4183; 1.4212; 1.4278
Sup: 1.4028; 1.4000; 1.3978; 1.3900
AUDUSD
The pair jumped to 0.7081 and tested daily 30SMA, on a rally from 0.7005, overnight’s correction low. Extension of the fourth, corrective wave, from 0.6826, would look for test of psychological 0.7100 barrier and strong 0.7134 resistance, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7325/0.6825 downleg.
Firm bearish tone prevails on lower timeframes, with today’s action being contained by daily 20SMA at 0.7008, now acting as pivotal support.
On the other side, daily slow Stochastic is entering overbought territory and giving initial signal of consolidation in the near-term.
Res: 0.7081; 0.7100; 0.7134; 0.7200
Sup: 0.7030; 0.7005; 0.6960; 0.6917
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD trades with mild positive bias near 0.6700, RBA Meeting Minutes eyed
The AUD/USD trades with a mild positive bias near 0.6695 during the early Asian session on Monday. The weaker US Dollar provides some support to the pair. The markets remain unconvinced that the Fed will pivot earlier than previously expected.
EUR/USD gains ground above 1.0850, focus on Fedspeak
The EUR/USD pair trades on a stronger note around 1.0875 on Monday during the early Asian trading hours. The uptick in the major pair is bolstered by the softer Greenback. The Federal Reserve’s Bostic, Barr, Waller, Jefferson, and Mester are scheduled to speak on Monday.
Gold looks to extend uptrend once it confirms $2,400 as support
Gold price continued to push higher last week and rose above $2,400 on Friday, gaining nearly 2% for the week. Investors will continue to scrutinize comments from Fed officials this week and look for fresh hints on the timing of the policy pivot in the minutes of the April 30-May 1 meeting.
AI tokens could really ahead of Nvidia earnings
Native cryptocurrencies of several blockchain projects using Artificial Intelligence could register gains in the coming week as the market prepares for NVIDIA earnings report.
Week ahead: Flash PMIs, UK and Japan CPIs in focus. RBNZ to hold rates
After cool US CPI, attention shifts to UK and Japanese inflation. Flash PMIs will be watched too amid signs of a rebound in Europe. Fed to stay in the spotlight as plethora of speakers, minutes on tap.