• Solid jobs creation and improvement unemployment rate won't offset soft wages' growth.
  • Fed's introduction of "symmetric"  inflation´s concept still trying to be digested.  

The US dollar has been enjoying strong demand these last couple of weeks, as easing geopolitical concerns and solid macroeconomic data revived hopes for a fourth rate hike this year. Indeed, inflation has been moving toward the 2.0% central bank target at a more firm pace this year. The Fed, however, has surprised many this Wednesday by introducing the concept of "symmetric" inflation. “Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term,” according to the FOMC's statement. Market players believe that is a way of saying that an uptick beyond the 2.0% target, won't necessarily trigger a rate hike as a response, somehow offsetting the optimist tone of the document.

The US Federal Reserve base its decisions on both, inflation and employment. Employment has long left being an issue, but the monthly report is closely watched, as in between, it reports wages' growth, which is related to inflationary pressures. The headline reading and the unemployment rate have been posting healthy outcomes for over three years now, and while still relevant, their relevance as market movers have faded over the past few months.  That said, if the headline figures come in-line with market's expectations, wages´ growth will have the final saying on dollar's directions.

The US economy is forecasted to have added 194K new jobs in April, a nice improvement from the previous 103K. The unemployment rate is predicted to have fallen to 4.0% from the previous 4.1%, but the critical Average Hourly Earnings is seen steady at 2.7% YoY. For the month, wages' growth is seen up 0.2%, below the previous 0.3%.

Data released ahead of the event, support a strong headline, as the ADP survey showed that the private sector added 204K new jobs in April, better than the 200K expected, while the weekly unemployment claims report showed that the 4-week moving average was 221,500, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 229,250. This is the lowest level for this average since March 3, 1973, when it was 221,250. Also supporting a lower unemployment rate, was the Challenger Jobs Cut report, which showed that cuts fell 40.2% in April from the previous month.

Still, wages data was not that encouraging. During the first quarter of 2018, Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 2.7% in the reflecting a 3.4 % increase in hourly compensation, below market's expectations of 2.9%. The previous quarter reading was downwardly revised to 2.1% from an initial estimate of 2.1%.

All in one, the Nonfarm Payroll report has little chances of boosting dollar's rally on its own, particularly if wages post the modest growth forecasted. The reaction of yields and equities will have the last saying in dollar's potential move after the release.

EUR/USD levels to watch

The EUR/USD pair´s daily chart shows that it stalled its decline a few pips above the yearly low of 1.1915. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart have pared their declines and are currently attempting a recovery within oversold territory, not enough to confirm a bottom. Furthermore, the pair is developing below all of its moving averages, breaking below the 200 DMA this week below the indicator for the first time in a year. The risk of a bearish breakout is still strong, as it would take at least a recovery above 1.2160, the 61.8% retracement of this year's rally, to call for an interim bottom. EUR self-weakness for sure doesn't help. Below 1.1915, the pair has the next strong support in the 1.1840/60 region, while below this last, the 1.1800 comes next. Resistances, on the other hand, are at 1.2025, 1.2060 and the 1.2100 region.

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD drops towards 1.1300 on dovish ECB headlines

EUR/USD is extending the drop towards 1.1300 after the ECB is debating over a potential increase in the APP at its meeting next week. The US dollar rebounds amid a cautious mood. Omicron, US-China woes keep investors on the edge.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD battles 1.3200 amid Omicron jitters, USD rebound

GBP/USD is trading flat around 1.3200, struggling to capitalize on the overnight goodish rebound from a one-year low. Fresh COVID-19 jitters pushed back BoE rate hike expectations and undermined the pound. Resurgent USD demand further stalled aggressive bullish bets.

GBP/USD News

Gold eases towards $1,780 on resurgent USD demand

Gold remains on the back foot below $1,790 amid broad US dollar reboud. Market sentiment dwindles as virus-linked news battles geopolitical fears, Fed rate hike concerns. Friday’s US CPI becomes crucial as inflation expectations improve.

Gold News

Analysts believe Ripple could beat SEC lawsuit on one condition

Experts are weighing in on the possible closure of the payments giant's lawsuit with the SEC. Analysts predict that the payment giant's win in the SEC vs. Ripple case could push XRP to a new high.

Read more

Cyber Monday 2021 Discounts!

Glued to your trading screen on Cyber Monday? Upgrade your skills by signing up for FXStreet’s Premium service, offered at a discount of up to 50%. Fellow traders have already taken advantage of Black Friday profits. What about you? 

Subscribe now!

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures