I think most of you intuit that I’m not like the normal guy out there. I think outside the box, analyze everything, respect and revere cycles as much as I hate them for their downside and discipline.

The truth is, I’m an entrepreneur, more than I am an economist. In fact, I think economics is mostly a load of B.S., and there are only three classical economists I pay any attention to: Dr. Lacy Hunt, Steve Keen, and Robert Shiller.

As an entrepreneur that just happened to trip onto demographics while consulting to entrepreneurial businesses in the 1980s, I found a profession that was stale and ripe for radical new insights…

That’s how I became a “rogue economist.” And most economists hate me for daring to disrupt their nice, neat and academic “pipe and cloak” club.

The reason I respect Robert Shiller, who is more traditionally academic and now more respected, is that he came up with new indicators that showed that real estate doesn’t appreciate long term when adjusted for inflation… Damn! (The same is true for gold.)

And he adjusted P/E ratios (valuations for stocks) to iron out extreme cycles with a 10-year moving average for earnings… kudos again.

He saw the bubble peaking in late 2005 in real estate, as did I, and he is now worried again about another bubble in stocks.

But back to my story…

Since I am an entrepreneur by nature, I take big risks and I’m enticed by radical innovations that can change the world.

I have no interest in being in “the club.”

I have little interest in traditional asset allocation and balanced risk versus reward strategies.

So, I invested in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when I made the most money from books, speaking and investment – when I was bullish and popular. But those investments were largely in new ventures.

I invested in people who were potentially changing the world in a big way.

I could afford the risk to invest in my passion.

But I didn’t fully understand those risks.

Such new ventures have extreme failure rates. They’re like babies crawling in the streets without parents to protect them! I put most of my money in new ventures and saw almost all of them fail. I finally got it when I talked with a friend who was a major venture capitalist investor. He said: “Harry, we only make it on one out of 11 at best – and we’re the best at what we do.” Well, his one was Oracle… and his returns were way better than mine. It’s what he did… and he got lucky on top of that.

Still, that didn’t stop me. Eventually, that one for me was… my own company! I learned to “stick to my knitting.”

So, now that I’m older and “wiser,” do I still invest more in other new ventures as I approach retirement?

No *bleeping* way! My circumstances are different now, as are my needs. I need more income and lower risk as I get ever closer to retirement.

Of course, I have no intentions of ever retiring. I think the whole concept is complete idiocy. Human beings are not meant to sit idle for decades. Still, I realize that, as I age, I must prepare for a time when either health or something unexpected slows me down. I’m a risk taker, yes! But I’m not stupid.

So, I now have two baskets of assets. The first is a cash hoard. I’ll take 10% and profit from the initial 40% crash in the bubble burst ahead. The rest of that cash I’ll put to work in our array of investment plans for a balance of risk. I’ll start with Adam and Lance and John’s services and then move into the lower risk strategies like Rodney and Charles over time.

The second basket is my one real estate asset that has done better than any new ventures I tried. I’ve been renting my primary home since late 2005, when I forecast the real estate crash. After all, I eat my own cooking.

The only real estate I kept was a 25-acre lot on an island with the best view ever. I kept it both because it was my “get-away” if things get as bad or worse than I expect, but more because it was due for five-acre zoning which has now finally happened. That means I not only have a house worth a lot with almost no debt, but I now have four extra five-acre lots to sell, and they’re each worth 70% of what the original 25-acre lot was worth… oh yeah!

So, my strategy is to get more conservative while still taking some risks. And my real estate will become a cash flow machine through rentals… at least for now.

Then, around 2024/5, when the baby boom peaks in its retirement and vacation-home-buying cycle, I’ll sell my house and those four extra lots. That will greatly increase my nest egg for “retirement.”

You may be wondering about why I’ve got real estate as part of my retirement plan when I believe we’re in for another real estate bust. It’s a good question. And a simple one to answer. I bought this property decades ago, at barrel-bottom prices. Even once real estate prices reset, as I expect them to, I will still have a decent investment on my hands. It’s a win/win on real estate that otherwise would be a horrible investment for most.

So, that’s my retirement plan.

The content of our articles is based on what we’ve learned as financial journalists. We do not offer personalized investment advice: you should not base investment decisions solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility. Our track record is based on hypothetical results and may not reflect the same results as actual trades. Likewise, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Certain investments such as futures, options, and currency trading carry large potential rewards but also large potential risk. Don’t trade in these markets with money you can’t afford to lose. Delray Publishing LLC expressly forbids its writers from having a financial interest in their own securities or commodities recommendations to readers.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD recovers above 0.6750 after Australian jobs data

AUD/USD recovers above 0.6750 after Australian jobs data

AUD/USD picks up a late bid and recovers above 0.6750 in Asian trading on Thursday, following the release of mixed Australian employment data. The extended post-Fed US Dollar recovery, amid a cautious market mood, could limit the pair's upside ahead of US data. 

AUD/USD News
USD.JPY jumps toward 144.00 on the road to recovery

USD.JPY jumps toward 144.00 on the road to recovery

USD/JPY gains traction and approaches 144.00 in Thursday's Asian session. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by the impressive US Dollar recovery. Investors shift their attention to the US data and the Bank of Japan interest rate decision on Friday. 

USD/JPY News
Gold price remains on the defensive amid the post-FOMC USD recovery from YTD low

Gold price remains on the defensive amid the post-FOMC USD recovery from YTD low

Gold price struggles to lure buyers despite the Fed’s jumbo interest rate cut on Wednesday. A further recovery in the US bond yields underpins the USD and caps the non-yielding metal. Concerns about an economic slowdown, along with geopolitical risks, help limit the downside.

Gold News
Ethereum attempts recovery following first rate cut in four years

Ethereum attempts recovery following first rate cut in four years

Ethereum is trading above $2,330 on Wednesday as the market is recovering following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Meanwhile, Ethereum exchange-traded funds recorded $15.1 million in outflows.

Read more
Australian Unemployment Rate expected to hold steady at 4.2% in August

Australian Unemployment Rate expected to hold steady at 4.2% in August

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly employment report at 1:30 GMT on Thursday. The country is expected to have added 25K new positions in August, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen to remain steady at 4.2%.

Read more
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures