Kshitij Consultancy Services Team
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Dollar Index has fallen across major currencies after Fed kept the interest steady at 5.25%-5.50% and mentioned that they do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. The Dollar Index, EURUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY are ranged within 106.50-105.50/105, 1.06/0650-1.0750, 168.169-166 & 154/152-160 respectively. Aussie can test 0.6580-0.66 on the upside before coming down towards 0.6450 on the downside, Pound below 1.26 looks bearish to 1.24 in the near term. USDCNY is closed today. EURINR may remain ranged within revised range of 88.50–89.50/90. USDINR can continue to trade within 83.50-83.30 for now. A sharp break above 83.50 will be strongly bullish towards 83.60/70 or even higher.
The US Treasury yields fell post the FED policy meeting where it kept the rates unchanged and is not expected to cut rates before Dec-24. The German yields look mixed as the 10yr yield has dipped slightly while the 30yr yield has risen. However, the overall medium-term trend is Up. The Indian GOI yields (10yr and 5y) can trade within the broad 7.15-7.20/22% region.
Dow Jones recovery fades on the expectation of FED keeping the interest rate higher for Longer. Dow Jones, Dax and Nikkei looks range bound for a while. Nifty has dipped but chances of rise towards 23000 cannot be ruled out before a corrective fall happens.
Crude prices have tumbled after Fed Chair Powell stated that "it will probably take longer than previously expected" for the bank to become sufficiently confident in the trajectory of inflation before beginning to lower interest rates. However, crude prices have near term supports coming up which if holds can provide some respite. Precious Metals remains ranged but have immediate resistance overhead which if holds can bearish in the coming sessions. Copper has fallen back but has support at 4.50 which if holds can keep it ranged within 4.50-4.70 for while. Natural Gas looks ranged between 1.85/1.90-2.10.
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The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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