Morning briefing: The US Treasury yields have risen well

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Dollar index continues to rise but has to pause below 104.50 for scope to decline a bit. Euro is holding above 1.07 and while above 1.07, chances of a rise looks possible. USDCNY can rise to 7.08/09 before pausing. Pound and Aussie may pause and hold above 1.23 and 0.65 but overall view remains bearish for the medium term. EURJPY and USDJPY look bullish. USDRUB is stuck within the range of 78.95-81.00. EURINR has to hold above 88.50 to rise back else can decline further to 88. USDINR can trade within 82.60-83.00

The US Treasury yields have risen well. An extended rise looks likely from here. Outlook continues to remain bullish. The German yields are also bullish. There is room to rise more from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have resistances ahead that can cap the upside. Downtrend is intact and a fresh fall can be seen in the coming days.

Dow Jones and DAX remain lower. Nikkei is attempting to rise above the immediate resistance at 31000-31100. Shanghai sell off continues and looks likely to come down further in the near term. Nifty has bounced back sharply as the support at 18200 has held well.

Crude prices plunged yesterday on comments from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak, who said that he doesn't expect any fresh actions from OPEC+ and that the organisation would probably maintain current crude production targets at the June 4th meeting. Gold and Silver needs to hold above 1930 and 22.75 to avoid further downside risk. Copper sustains higher and may move up further to test 3.65/3.66.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

EUR/USD steadies near 1.1650 ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls

EUR/USD holds ground after five days of losses, trading around 1.1650 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders remain cautious ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to offer further insight into labor market conditions and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. December NFP is forecast to show job gains of 60,000, down from 64,000 in November.

GBP/USD: Further weakness could challenge 1.3400

GBP/USD remains under unabated selling pressure on Thursday, slipping to fresh three-day lows around 1.3415 in response to further improvement in the sentiment surrounding the Greenback ahead of Friday’s key NFP data.

Gold defends $4,450, looks to the crucial US NFP report

Gold struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish move up from the vicinity of the $4,400 mark and attracts some sellers while defending $4,450 in the Asian session on Friday. The critical US employment details will offer more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, which, in turn, will influence the US Dollar price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding bullion.

Forecasts for Payrolls are all over the place

Yesterday’s data put the kybosh on the idea the Fed needs to cut rates fairly urgently to protect the labor market. The jobs component of the ISM services index was nicely over 50, and that rising JOLTS voluntary quits rate also points to no real heartache in labor.

2026 economic outlook: Clear skies but don’t unfasten your seatbelts yet

Most years fade into the background as soon as a new one starts. Not 2025: a year of epochal shifts, in which the macroeconomy was the dog that did not bark. What to expect in 2026? The shocks of 2025 will not be undone, but neither will they be repeated.

XRP slides as institutional and retail demand falters

Ripple is trading down for the third consecutive day on Thursday amid escalating volatility in the cyrptocurrency market. After peaking at $2.41 on Tuesday, its highest print since November 14 amid the early-year rally, XRP has quickly ran into aggressive profit-taking.