Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
Conclusions
- We look for a continued weakening of the CNY versus USD and EUR of 7% and 15% respectively, over the next year. This is more weakness than in the forward market.
- We continue to recommend corporates with receivables to hedge.
- Hedging should be done using the CNH market.
- The CNH-CNY spread is expected to stay wide but come down over time.
Key takeaways from China’s FX policy
1. CNY more market based – but still managed.2. However, China manages against a basket and no longer the USD. The markets do not understand this yet.
3. China states officially that currency is at equilibrium. But this is evaluated against the basket – not the USD.
4. China allows depreciation against the USD as long as the trade weighted CNY is around ‘equilibrium rate’.
5. The CNH-CNY spread has proved hard to keep tight – it is likely to stay wide short term but narrow over time.
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD hold comfortably above 1.0750 as USD recovery loses steam
EUR/USD clings to small daily gains above 1.0750 in the early American session on Monday. In the absence of high-tier data releases, the US Dollar finds it difficult to gather recovery momentum and helps the pair hold its ground.
GBP/USD struggles to find direction, holds near 1.2550
GBP/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades near 1.2550 on Tuesday. The neutral risk mood, as reflected by the mixed action seen in US stocks, doesn't allow the pair to make a decisive move in either direction. The Bank of England will announce policy decisions on Thursday.
Gold rebounds to $2,320 as US yields edge lower
After falling to $2,310 in the early European session, Gold recovered to the $2,310 area in the second half of the day. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.5% and helps XAU/USD find support.
Ripple lawsuit develops with SEC reply under seal, XRP holders await public redacted versions
Ripple lawsuit’s latest development is SEC filing, under seal. The regulator has filed its reply brief and supporting exhibits and the documents will be made public on Wednesday, May 8.
The impact of economic indicators and global dynamics on the US Dollar
Recent labor market data suggest a cooling economy. The disappointing job creation and rising unemployment hint at a slackening demand for labor, which, coupled with subdued wage growth, could signal a slower economic trajectory.