I highly recommend saving the below events into your google calendar as a part of weekly routine. Please see further analysis below. It includes Tuesday to Friday trading sessions.
This week we are looking at two major events.
- RBNZ rate decision and policy statement. Officailly, market expects rates to stay unchanges but there is some speculation on the cut.
- ECB will make headline on Wednesday with the similar statement.
Trading Highlights of the week:
Monday, March 7th @ 3:30am - JPY - BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
Tuesday, March 8th @ Tentative:0am - CNY - Trade Balance
Tuesday, March 8th @ 9:15am - GBP - BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Wednesday, March 9th @ 9:30am - GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
Wednesday, March 9th @ 3:0pm - CAD - BOC Rate Statement
Wednesday, March 9th @ 8:0pm - NZD - RBNZ Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement
Wednesday, March 9th @ 11:0pm - NZD - RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
Thursday, March 10th @ 1:30am - CNY - CPI y/y
Thursday, March 10th @ 12:45am - EUR - Minimum Bid Rate
Thursday, March 10th @ 1:30am - EUR - ECB Press Conference
Friday, March 11th @ 1:30pm - CAD - Employment Change
TuesdayTuesday, March 8th @ Tentative:0am - CNY - Trade Balance
Pretty important piece of data for China. China is one of the top exporting countries and the biggest supplier of goods. Lower trade balance would suggest exports prevail over imports hence the rest of the world (China’s partners) are also recovering. The lower number would suggest sluggish growth elsewhere. This report always has an impact on AUD and other commodity currencies.
Market expects 329B vs 406B previously. Lower than expected number would send AUD crosses lower on the day.
Tuesday, March 8th @ 9:15am - GBP - BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Carney speaks before the Parliamentary Committee in London. Central bankers’ speeches are always worth to keep on eye. Carney could potentially mention monetary policy in details. Positive statements would be positive for the local currency (GBP); dovish tone could sell off GBP.
Wednesday, March 9th @ 9:30am - GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
Market expects 0.2% vs a negative 0.2% prior. Given pretty bad streak of economics news from UK recently, I wouldn’t expect this to print any better. GBPUSD is now approaching an important resistance at 1.4350. A negative print would add to bearish bias on Cable.
Wednesday, March 9th @ 3:0pm - CAD - BOC Rate and Statement
BOC is expected to stay put on rates for the moment. Low CAD prices on the back of cheap oil had a simulative effect on the Canadian economy over the past year or so. This trend continues. There is no reason for BOC to act with the currency that cheap.
Wednesday, March 9th @ 8:0pm - NZD - RBNZ Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement
This could be an event of the week indeed. Officially the market expects for rates to stay unchanged at 2.5%. From the other hand, there is a good bit of speculation between analysts expecting RBNZ to cut by 0.25%. If this is the case, we could see a sharp decline across NZD crosses right after the release.
Wednesday, March 9th @ 11:0pm - NZD - RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
This will be in spotlight depending on the previous happenings with rates.
Thursday, March 10th @ 1:30am - CNY - CPI y/y
Chinese CPI is expected to print unchanged at 1.8%. There is no pressure on inflation in China. Deviations from expectation would not have so much impact on currencies across the board. Markets are more concern about industrial production and monetary policy in China.
Thursday, March 10th @ 12:45am - EUR - Minimum Bid Rate
Thursday, March 10th @ 1:30am - EUR - ECB Press Conference
Another big event on the week. Markets are looking out at ECB to ease further. Minimum bid rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.5% but ECB could stimulate other variables like Deposit rate. This is expected to be cut by 0.1%. QE could be also bumped up
Friday, March 11th @ 1:30pm - CAD - Employment Change
This is probably non-event, given the rate decision was announced only two days ago.
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