Steve Miley, MSTA
MarketChartist
The strong bull rally to end November has stalled at the cycle high at 1.1468, but has produced a bullish shift for upside risk into mid-December.
Erratic consolidation has dominated much of this week, but the rebound from 1.1313, significantly above notable support at 1.1223 sees bull pressures re-energizing.
Short-term Outlook - Upside Risks
We still see early December risk higher for 1.1468.
Above the cycle high at 1.1468 then targets 1.1500, 1.1543 and maybe into year-end up to the 61.8% retrace of the entire 2009-11 sell off at 1.1655.
Overshoot threat is then a key weekly failure peak from 2009 at 1.1727.
Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is again positive, but not OB, leaving scope to go still higher this week.
What Changes This? Below 1.1313 eases bull risks; through 1.1223 signals a neutral tone, quickly shifting negative below 1.1192.
For Today:
We see an upside bias through 1.1425 for 1.1460; break here aims for 1.1500, maybe 1.1527.
But below 1.1313 opens risk down to 1.1265, maybe 1.1223.
4 Hour USDCAD Chart
Weekly USDCAD Chart
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