At what time does Mark Carney speak?
Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is expected to give a press conference at 7.30GMT at the Mansion House dinner.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy committee kept rates on hold at 0.25% earlier this month. It was predicted seven to one votes, instead five members voted to kept rates at 0.25% and three of them to raise it. In the today's Mark Carney Speech, attention will turn to the tone of the comments about the possibility of raising the rate this year and the influence of inflation that reached 2.7% last may.
What did Mark Carney say on previous events?
Inflation Report Press Conference - May 2017
Inflation Report Press Conference - February 2017
Mark Carney: The promise of fintech – something new under the sun?
About Mark Carney
Mark Carney is Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Policy Committee and the Board of the Prudential Regulation Authority. His appointment as Governor was approved by Her Majesty the Queen on 26 November 2012. The Governor joined the Bank on 1 July 2013.
About BOE interest Rate Decision
BoE Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of England. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the GBP. Likewise, if the BoE has a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.
Brexit talks begin this week but it may take some time before there are meaningful headlines. Instead, the focus tomorrow will be on BoE Governor Carney's speech at the Mansion House at 7:30 GMT. It's a private event so we don't know how much he'll delve into monetary policy but after the unexpected hawkishness of last week's Bank of England meeting and the economic/political uncertainty from May's defeat, the BoE's outlook going forward could decide if GBP/USD breaks 1.2830 or 1.2650. Sterling is lower today because investors know that Carney is generally more cautious than peers, having raised concerns about inflation and wages when the Quarterly Inflation Report was released. If he does not sympathize with the optimism of the 3 MPC members who voted to raise rates immediately, GBP/USD could sink quickly to 1.2650. As for Brexit and Coalition talks, we know the Conservative /DUP talks are still underway and May's weakened position ups the chance of a soft Brexit.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney delivers his Mansion House address, 0830 BST, Tuesday 20th June
The Mansion House event was scheduled for last week, but was delayed after the Grenfell Tower fire. In the past, Mark Carney has used his Mansion House speech to deliver a very candid message on the state of the UK economy and even to deliver a message on policy, anyone remember when Carney introduced forward guidance at his first Mansion House speech? While we expect Carney to be more tight-lipped this time round, we do think that he will need to address the recent vote split at the BOE, where 3 members’ voted to hike interest rates last week, and 5 voted to keep rates steady. We should get a sense from Carney if there is a chance that other MPC members will also switch to voting for a rate hike in the coming months. However, we think that a near-term rate hike from the BOE is unlikely. Firstly, Kristen Forbes, one of the MPC dissenters, is leaving at the end of this month, and we don’t know how her replacement, Silvana Tenreyo, will vote and whether she will continue Forbes’ tradition of voting for a hike. Secondly, we expect Carney to continue to sound concerned about the squeeze on households, after the rise in inflation and the collapse in wage growth. Lastly, we believe that there is a chance that Carney could use this speech to hint at the end of the Term Funding Scheme that was implemented after the Brexit vote. If this happens then we doubt that the bank will end this scheme and hike rates at the same time, so a rate hike could be on the back burner for some time. We expect Carney’s speech to have the biggest impact on the pound, and any shock sign that rates could rise in the coming months is likely to have a major upward impact on sterling and UK bond yields.
This morning in UK, BoE Governor Carney and Chancellor Hammond will deliver the Mansion House speeches that were originally scheduled for last week and will be keenly watched by investors, according to the analysts at TDS.
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