Weekly Review – Majors moving as anticipated ahead of Non-Farm Payroll

Post the Federal Reserve March month policy statement, the view on Currencies and Gold have been published under macro scan page and under individual forecasts, e.g. Gold Forecast, CAD Forecast, and so on, in order to make it easier for readers to access reports as and when required.

Central Bank watch and Individual Pair Forecast review

We would be revisiting views published since the Fed statement today. I would like to begin with the Post Fed review titled “FOMC Review – Less Dovish than perceived” (Macro Scan 2015/03/19/) posted on March. 19th. We discussed the key takeaways from the Fed policy statement and its impact on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pair. The report anticipated EUR/USD and GBP/USD to remain stuck in the range of 1.055‐1.10 and 1.47‐1.51 respectively, at least till the April non‐farm payrolls release in the US. So far, as anticipated, the EUR/USD has repeatedly failed to sustain above 1.10, while GBP/USD is back to 1.48 after having failed numerous times at 1.5 levels.

Meanwhile, the JPY forecast report titled “USD/JPY Analysis: Could test 119.70 on Monday” (JPY Forecast 2015/03/20/) published on March 20th, anticipated a decline in the pair to 119.70. The pair did decline as expected in the first two trading sessions of the next week. The CAD forecast titled “USD/CAD Forecast: Technicals favor correction to 1.27 levels” (CAD Forecast 2015/03/18/) published on March. 18 played out as expected. The dovish Fed minutes pushed the USD/CAD pair well below the expected level of 1.27.

What followed was a couple of disappointing calls, beginning with a view on the EUR/USD published under EUR/USD Forecast as “EUR/USD Forecast: Could extend the decline to 1.0830”(EUR USD Forecast 2015/03/24/02/). The report, published on March. 24th, anticipated a drop to 1.0830 in the next 24‐hours or so. However, the pair rose to 1.1013 levels before moving lower to the expected level. On similar lines a trading view on GBP/USD (GBP USD Technical Analysis 2015/03/23/02/) published on March. 23rd did not play out exactly as expected. The rise in the GBP/USD stalled at 1.5, contrary to 1.5120 levels anticipated in the report.

Macro Scan ‐ Review

In the meantime, the macro scan page ran two trading ideas from my end. A view on GBP/JPY titled “GBP/JPY: Eyes 177.00” (Macro Scan 2015/03/17/02/) published on Mar. 17th played out as anticipated. The pair missed the target by a few pips, as it hit a low of 177.13, before rising on the back of dovish Fed policy statement.

The second idea published on 25th March titled “Could BOE turn dovish and cut rates” (Macro Scan 2015/03/25/), talked about the possibility of BOE turns dovish and actually moving towards a rate cut. A relatively long run view is likely to play out over the next two months or so.