Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
Gold
A traditional consolidation is forming ahead of the payrolls report today. The crucial factor though is that this consolidation is coming in the wake of a failed breakout above $1480 (a key area of overhead supply) in a move that has left resistance at $1484. It means that the direction garnered from the payrolls report today could be crucial in determining the near to medium term outlook. We see the daily RSI faltering in the low to mid-50s. Previous bull failures have come with RSI around 60, suggesting there could still be some further upside in recovery. A downtrend from the $1557 high sits at $1490 today, so again there could still be some upside to play out near term. However, the resistance around $1480 has been key for several weeks now and does not seem to be willing to give way. It would need a move above $1500 to really suggest the bulls are in a sustainable recovery. For today though, a decent payrolls would be gold negative. Another bull failure at or around $1480 with a renewed negative candle would be a key move to re-open the $1445 support again. The hourly chart shows initial support around $1460/$1466.
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