Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD reaches fresh monthly highs, aims for $2,400

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $2,383.39

As expected, the United States Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% YoY in April.
Persistently above-target inflation likely to maintain the Fed in the wait-and-see path.
XAU/USD is bullish in the near term, could soon test the $2,400 mark.

Gold price reached a fresh three-week high above $2,380.00 on Wednesday and maintains the bullish stance in the mid-American session. XAU/USD rallied following the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) as inflation remained stubbornly high in April, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The CPI rose 3.4% YoY in April from 3.5% in March, meeting the market’s expectations, while the core annual reading printed at 3.6%, easing from the previous 3.8% but also in line with the market forecast. Finally, the monthly CPI rose 0.3%, slightly below the expected 0.4%.

Overall, the figures were not as terrible as feared, but enough to reaffirm the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance. The central bank has maintained the status quo since hiking rates to a range of 5.25% - 5.50% in July 2023 for much longer than initially anticipated. In fact, the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested policymakers were aiming for three potential rate hikes when they met in December. March is gone, and at the time being, investors hope US policymakers will deliver at least one rate cut in November.

What happened? Well, inflation remained above the central bank’s goal, while the labor market remained tight. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell lifted the tone and ended up delivering clearly hawkish messages. In such a scenario, speculative interest is eager to see softening inflation figures, precisely the opposite of what was seen throughout the first quarter of the year. As a result, investors drop the US Dollar.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows bulls are in control, although a firmer rally remains unclear. Technical indicators advance within positive levels with uneven strength, yet at the same time, they stand at fresh multi-week highs, somehow supporting a bullish continuation. Furthermore, XAU/USD finally ran above a flat 20 Simple Moving Average, which provided near-term support at around $2,335 earlier in the week. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs accelerated their advances far below the current level, reflecting renewed buying interest.

The near-term picture is bullish. Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart head firmly south, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator entering overbought territory without signs of giving up. Furthermore, the pair bounced sharply from a bullish 20 SMA, which gained upward traction above the also bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. XAU/USD could reach the $2,400 mark in the upcoming sessions despite widespread signs of risk appetite.

Support levels: 2,378.10 2,361.35 2,345.20

Resistance levels: 2,392.50, 2,403.10 2,417.60

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD: Next upside target comes at 0.7000

AUD/USD has advanced further, clinching its third consecutive day of gains and trading at shouting distance from the key 0.7000 threshold on Tuesday. The widespread improved sentiment in the risk complex helped the Aussie maintain its upside momentum, while the fresh selling impulse in the Greenback also contributed to the move.

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 despite hawkish BoJ outlook

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 in the early European morning on Tuesday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen fails to find any inspiration from hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and elevated US bond yields keep the US Dollar near its YTD high despite receding October Fed hike bets. This, in turn, helps the pair stay supported.

Gold stays firm; looks at $4,200

Gold builds on Monday’s marginal bounce, although it struggles to reclaim the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce so far on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s advance comes on the back of the fresh downside momentum in the US Dollar in tandem with retreating US Treasury yields across the curve.

Ethena Price Forecast: ENA corrects as Ether.Fi launches stablecoin on the protocol

Ethena (ENA) trades near $0.24000 on Tuesday amid growing technical weakness. The Ethereum Layer-2 token has shed some of its recent gains, which peaked at $0.2946 on September 27, reinforcing profit-taking and buyer exhaustion. An extended sell-off would bring ENA to test the psychological support at $0.2000 and key technical levels further down.

Japanese Yen nears 158.00: Two analysts agree it's bullish, and disagree on how far the breakout goes

The JPY is drifting near 158.00 against the USD ahead of a busy week of Japanese data and a still-unclear BoJ timetable. The two most recent FXStreet analyses agree on the direction, but they disagree on the target and the mechanism.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.