Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD keeps struggling for direction

XAU/USD Current price: $2,647.80

• Geopolitical tensions in South Korea and France undermined the market’s mood.
• The US reported higher-than-anticipated job openings in October, according to the JOLTS report.
• XAU/USD is neutral-to-bearish in the near term, a directional breakout not yet in sight.

The US Dollar (USD) gained upward traction during American trading hours after spending the first half of the day on the back foot amid a better market mood. XAU/USD retreats from an intraday high of $2,655.50 but retains the $2640 mark at the time of writing, as the USD benefits from a deteriorated market mood.

The market sentiment deteriorated following the release of the United States (US) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Job Openings report, showing the number of openings in the last business day of October stood at 7.74 million, according to the report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The reading was higher than the 7.37 million openings in September and beat the market expectation of 7.48 million.

Fresh geopolitical tensions in Asia also undermine the mood. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law. The army closed the Parliament while representatives voted to block the president’s declaration. The SK Won plunged vs the USD, providing the latter with fresh impetus. News coming from France are no better. The minority government seems to be on the brink of collapse, as opposition lawmakers from the left and the far right vowed to topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s Cabinet, according to AP news.

Meanwhile, US indexes trade in the red. Asian and European equities advanced, limiting USD strength, but Wall Street could not follow the lead. Even further, US government bond yields are back on the rise, underpinning the American currency.

Other than that, investors await more US employment-related data scheduled throughout the week. The November ADP report on private job creation is expected to show that 150K new positions were created in the sector on Wednesday. The most relevant figures will be out on Friday when the US will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows the pair is pretty much unchanged from its opening and still confined to familiar levels. The Momentum indicator aims higher above its 100 level, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads nowhere at around 48. At the same time, the XAU/USD pair barely holds above a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep advancing below the current level, losing their former strength but still aiming north.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bearish stance. The pair keeps hovering around a directionless 20 SMA while midway between also flat 100 and 200 SMAs. Finally, technical indicators turned marginally lower right below their midlines, lacking strength enough to confirm another leg lower.

Support levels: 2,626.70 2,611.35 2,598.70  

Resistance levels:  2,655.50 2,671.55 2,688.65