Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hovers around $2,350 as investors await news from the Middle East

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $2,341.03

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit its highest since mid-2023.
Tensions between Israel and Iran undermine the market mood.
XAU/USD consolidates around its daily opening, may extend its corrective slide.

Gold consolidates around $2,350 a troy ounce on Monday, struggling to find directional strength in a risk-averse environment. XAU/USD hit an all-time high of $2,431.43 on Friday but closed the day in the red amid continued US Dollar demand combined with profit-taking ahead of the weekly close.

Weekend news kept concerns alive as Iran launched a massive attack on Israel, spurring fears of an Israeli retaliation. Western allies called for the latter to avoid escalating the conflict, but it’s unclear what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could do next. Netanyahu is discussing with its cabinet whether or not they will hit back at Iran. Tensions affected Oil prices the most but also backed demand for the Greenback.

The US Dollar is also benefiting from running Treasury yields. The 10-year note currently offers 4.64%, up 13 basis points (bps) and its highest since June 2023. The 2-year note yields 4.94%, up modest 6 bps. Meanwhile, Wall Street battles to reverse Friday’s losses, with the three major indexes trading mixed.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it may extend its corrective slide. The pair posted a lower low and lower high but remains above all its moving averages, with a firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,259.00. Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreated from their recent highs but remain within overbought readings.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk of a downward extension has increased. A flat 20 SMA caps advances at around $2,356.00, while the longer moving averages are partially losing their upward momentum. The Momentum indicator stands just above its 100 level trying to resume its advance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator gains downward traction around 49. The bearish case will be stronger if XAU/USD breaks through $2,319.20, a strong support level.

Support levels: 2,333.80. 2,319.20 2,303.80

Resistance levels: 2,356.10 2,365.25 2,380.00

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

GBP/USD keeps the vacillating tone near 1.3650

GBP/USD struggles to extend its ongoimg recovery on Monday, this time flirting with the 1.3650 zone. Indeed, Cable trades without clear direction, although it manages well to maintain its business in the upper end of the recent range, challenging multi-week tops despite the decent recovery in the Greenback.

EUR/USD drifts lower to the 1.1670 zone

EUR/USD navigates a tight range at the beginning of the week, hovering around the 1.1670 region amid humble losses. The pair’s decline follows a decent advance in the US Dollar while investors continue to closely follow developments from the US money market.

Gold pushes harder; focus is now on $4,700

Gold keeps its bullish pace well and sound and approaches the $4,700 mark per troy ounce for the first time since early May. The precious metal’s move higher comes despite slight gains in the US Dollar and a modest pullback in US Treasury yields across the curve.

Here's what I learned trading meme coins

I’ve been trading cryptocurrencies for the past seven years, with meme coins becoming one of the most exciting and implacable parts of my experience. I love them because they represent internet culture and community sentiment, and, let’s be honest, extreme speculation. Newly launched meme coins were especially tempting: get in early enough, I thought, and a small bet could turn into a huge return.

Bessent’s presser in focus

Preview: Busy week ahead, with Bessent kicking this off today, with things wrapping up with Warsh at Jackson Hole. For a month that should have been a temporary period of ‘quiet’, we had anything but last week, with the bond market and tariffs front and centre.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.