Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hovers around $2,350 as investors await news from the Middle East

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $2,341.03

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit its highest since mid-2023.
Tensions between Israel and Iran undermine the market mood.
XAU/USD consolidates around its daily opening, may extend its corrective slide.

Gold consolidates around $2,350 a troy ounce on Monday, struggling to find directional strength in a risk-averse environment. XAU/USD hit an all-time high of $2,431.43 on Friday but closed the day in the red amid continued US Dollar demand combined with profit-taking ahead of the weekly close.

Weekend news kept concerns alive as Iran launched a massive attack on Israel, spurring fears of an Israeli retaliation. Western allies called for the latter to avoid escalating the conflict, but it’s unclear what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could do next. Netanyahu is discussing with its cabinet whether or not they will hit back at Iran. Tensions affected Oil prices the most but also backed demand for the Greenback.

The US Dollar is also benefiting from running Treasury yields. The 10-year note currently offers 4.64%, up 13 basis points (bps) and its highest since June 2023. The 2-year note yields 4.94%, up modest 6 bps. Meanwhile, Wall Street battles to reverse Friday’s losses, with the three major indexes trading mixed.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it may extend its corrective slide. The pair posted a lower low and lower high but remains above all its moving averages, with a firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,259.00. Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreated from their recent highs but remain within overbought readings.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk of a downward extension has increased. A flat 20 SMA caps advances at around $2,356.00, while the longer moving averages are partially losing their upward momentum. The Momentum indicator stands just above its 100 level trying to resume its advance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator gains downward traction around 49. The bearish case will be stronger if XAU/USD breaks through $2,319.20, a strong support level.

Support levels: 2,333.80. 2,319.20 2,303.80

Resistance levels: 2,356.10 2,365.25 2,380.00

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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