Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD consolidates just below the $2,400 mark

XAU/USD Current price: $2,392.25

• Encouraging United States macroeconomic data fell short of triggering action.
• The focus remains on central banks, with the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve coming up.
• XAU/USD extends its consolidative phase, buyers paused but retain control.

Gold price struggles to regain the $2,400 mark on Tuesday, hovering just below the threshold with a modest intraday positive tone. XAU/USD trades rangebound as speculative interest assesses news from the United States (US) ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, which showed that openings on the last business day of the month stood at 8.184 million, below the upwardly revised 8.23 million posted in May. Additionally, the  Conference Board (CB) revealed that the Consumer Confidence Index rose in July to 100.3 from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June.

Anyway, the focus remains on upcoming central banks’ decisions. Ahead of the Asian opening, market talks suggest the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could discuss raising rates to 0.25%. Expectations also point to a reduction in government bond purchases. The one thing clear is that the BoJ can no longer remain on hold.

Later on Wednesday, the Fed will take the stage. The US central bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged, although market participants hope policymakers will provide clues on a September rate cut. Ever since Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a more dovish speech, hopes for two interest rate cuts before year-end have skyrocketed.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

From a technical point of view, the bearish potential for XAU/USD seems limited. In the daily chart, the pair is trading just below a still bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the longer moving averages maintain their upward slopes far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain directionless just above their midlines, as the bright metal remains confined to a tight range for a second consecutive day.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral-to-bullish. The pair is trading just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the June/July rally at $2,388.25 while still contained between directionless moving averages. However, technical indicators have picked up modestly within positive levels, skewing the risk to the upside.

Support levels: 2,388.25 2,366.30 2,353.00

Resistance levels: 2,403.10 2,418.15 2,431.30