Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD at risk of falling

XAU/USD Current price: $2,639.49

• United States markets are closed amid the celebration of the Thanksgiving Holiday.
• Market participants maintain bets the Federal Reserve will trim interest rates in December.
• XAU/USD gains downward traction in the near term, could soon pierce $2,600.

Spot Gold remains lifeless below the $2,650 level on a quiet Thursday as investors gear up for an extended weekend. The batch of United States (US) macroeconomic data released on Wednesday anticipated the ongoing quietness, as all American markets are closed amid the Thanksgiving Holiday.

On a positive note, the bright metal finds support in mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver another 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut when it meets in mid-December. At the time, according to the CME FedWatch Toll, the odds are roughly 70%.

Meanwhile, European stocks closed in the green, led by the tech sector amid receding concerns about the US imposing fresh tariffs on China’s products.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD has made little progress. It’s trading barely up for a third consecutive day, still confined to the lower end of its weekly range after plummeting on Monday. Technical readings in the daily chart show that the risk skews to the downside, as Gold is meeting sellers around a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) for a second consecutive day. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, remain well below their current level, partially losing their upward strength. Finally, technical indicators head nowhere within negative levels, in line with absent buying interest.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral-to-bearish. The pair is trading just above converging 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shorter one offering a firmer downward slope, suggesting mounting selling pressure. The 200 SMA, in the meantime, remains directionless far above the shorter ones. Technical indicators suggest the bright metal may fall further as both rotated south around their mid-lines, reflecting mounting selling pressure.

Support levels: 2,626.70 2,611.35 2,598.70  

Resistance levels: 2,643.30 2,655.00 2,671.55