Gold Price Forecast: Trump tariffs threat lifts XAU/USD, focus shifts to Fed Minutes

Gold price hits weekly lows, then rebounds on Trump tariffs-led flight to safety.
Impending Bear Cross on the daily chart and bearish RSI caution Gold buyers.
Gold price awaits Fed Minutes for fresh hints on the December interest rate cut.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Gold price has staged a solid comeback so far this Tuesday’s trading after hitting a six-day low at $2,605 in early dealings. Gold buyers look forward to the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) November meeting for the next push higher.

Gold buyers try their luck ahead of Fed Minutes

Gold price extended the previous day’s corrective downside and reached multi-day lows before drawing strong support from a fresh flight to safety wave, triggered by the latest post by US President-elect Donald Trump on Truth Social.

Trump pledged to announce a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China once he takes over his office on January 20. In response, the Chinese ambassador to Australia warned that “US policy on trade with China and other countries will have an impact.”

Mounting concerns surrounding a looming global trade war dent risk sentiment, ramping safe-haven flows into the US Dollar (USD) and the traditional safety bet Gold price. However, the renewed USD demand and rebounding US Treasury bond yields limit Gold buyers’ enthusiasm as they await the Fed Minutes for fresh signals on the expected December interest rate cut.

CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in a 61% chance that the Fed will lower rates next month.

Additionally, waning geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon remain a headwind for the bright metal. A senior Israeli official told Reuters on Monday that the Israeli cabinet will convene on Tuesday to approve a Lebanon ceasefire deal. Another Israeli official told Reuters the cabinet would convene to discuss a deal that could be cemented in the coming days.

Gold price was thrown under the bus on Monday even as the USD and the US Treasury bond yields fell sharply on the news that US President-elect Donald Trump named billionaire Scott Bessent as his Treasury Secretary.

Bessent’s appointment to the critical position in the Trump administration assured the US bond market, as he is seen as an old Wall Street hand and a fiscal conservative.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

At the time of writing, Gold price is consolidating the bounce near $2,625 as buyers stay cautious amid an impending Bear Cross.

The 21-day SMA is closing in to cut the 50-day SMA from above. If that happens on a daily closing basis, it will validate the bearish crossover.

Adding credence to the downside potential, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has found a foothold below the 50 level, currently at 45.50.

The immediate support is at the intraday low of $2,605, below which a drop toward the 100-day SMA at $2,566 cannot be ruled out.

A sustained break below that level could challenge the November 14 low of $2,537.

Conversely, Gold buyers need a daily candlestick closing above the confluence of the 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA at $2,667.

The next topside barriers are seen at the $2,700 level and Monday’s high of $2,721.

Economic Indicator

FOMC Minutes

FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

Why it matters to traders?

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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