Weekly column: Trump's trade gambles and the geocosmic climate

Review

US President Trump’s retreat from trade taxes took less than 24 hours. However, taxes on imports from China increased, and the universal 10% import tax stays in place….The big lessons from this: policy remains very (very) erratic; policy competence will be questioned by markets—chaotic confusion about the tariffs on Mexico and Canada suggests the lack of a master plan; the winning strategy for everyone else is to hang tough and wait for Trump to retreat. Repeated policy uncertainty will hamper investment into the US.

—Dr. Paul Donovan, “Retreat, Repeat, Retreat, Repeat,” UBS Morning Comment, www.ubs.com/cio, April 10, 2025.

History arises under many forces and from many causes, but the psychology of leaders has its place. Mr. Trump is a gambler by nature. He places big bets, has all his professional and political life, and the thing about gamblers… is that all… are looking to lose. They want to win, hope to win, but need the possibility of catastrophic loss to excite them, to keep them interested in life. Mr. Trump this week placed one of the biggest bets of his life, but it was the world’s money that was in the pot. That was some kind of ugly, reckless thing to do.

—Peggy Noonan, “Trump’s Climbdown for the Ages,” Wall Street Journal, www.wsj.com, April 10, 2025.

The retrograde chaos period finally comes to an end this week. After last week’s market convulsions, it couldn’t happen a moment too soon. Stock markets around the world cratered early last week. But by the end of the week, several global stock indices made partial recoveries to give at last a sign of hope for investors going forward.

Our call for this year in the Forecast 2025 Book was that many global stock indices, including the DJIA, would decline 15-26% in value from their all-time or multi-year highs due to the time band for the 3-year cycle low in effect April 2025-April 2026. That has now happened to nearly every global stock index we track. The question now is whether or not it is over. Or will there be a further deterioration of equity values to qualify for an 18-year cycle trough (decline of 35-65% off all-time or multi-yearly highs that formed between December 2024 and early March 2025)?

Two exceptions to last week’s bear market growl were noted in Gold and currency markets. Gold soared to another new all-time high, rallying from a pullback to a major cycle low of 2970 last Monday, April 7, as Venus conjoined Saturn and Mercury turned direct to a new high of 3263 on Friday, April 11. This just happened to fit in perfectly with our analysis of Gold given in last Sunday’s special snap webinar, stating that the 2975-3000 level marked the new baseline for support in Gold, and a new all-time high could be achieved by the time Venus turned direct (now). The rally in the stock market and Silver, following the early week’s low, also fits very well with the analysis made in that presentation. In addition to the rally in metals, several major currencies, such as the Swiss Franc, Euro, and Yen, also soared to new multi-year highs. Treasuries, on the other hand, had a panic attack and suffered a sudden and alarming selloff as the world began to doubt the “faith and goodwill” of American leadership and their financial system.

Short-term geocosmics and longer-term thoughts

It wasn’t good to let the world know, or to remind it so vividly, that the way to get America to back off is to tank its bond market. Those bonds, as Zanny Minton Beddoes of the Economist put it, are “the ultimate faith asset.” The world has been reminded they could become the ultimate weak spot.

—Peggy Noonan, “Trump’s Climbdown for the Ages,” Wall Street Journal, www.wsj.com, April 10, 2025.

This show has only one protagonist who matters: Mr Trump. There is no tariff strategy beyond his whims. Although Mr Trump blinked yesterday, don’t think that this Tariff Show is over. America is still engaged in a brutal tit-for-tat trade war with China….the damage of the past week cannot be easily undone. Yes, markets have recovered from a near meltdown. But Mr Trump has upended the old certainties that underpinned the global economy and introduced extraordinary levels of volatility and confusion. We are, as our cover title says, in the “age of chaos.”

—Zanny Minton Beddoes, “The Age of Chaos,” The Economist, April 10, 2025.

Hey! That’s my term for this year!

The good news is that the “Retrograde Chaos” period, a term I coined back in December to describe the year 2025, concludes this weekend as the last of the back-to-back retrograde cycles of personal planets – Venus, in this case – ends. The not-so-good news is that the economic chaos does not end, as President Trump did not conclude his tariff negotiations with the rest of the world. He only paused the threat of higher tariffs for 90 days, which will bring the next explosive period squarely into the crosshairs of the Jupiter square Saturn/Neptune orb of influence. This is the major aspect of 2025, indicating possible hysteria and panic, exactly in mid-June, just a couple of weeks before his next proclaimed tariff assault will begin if his demands are not met. If the negotiations don’t find satisfactory results even by mid-May, hysteria is apt to increase as he prepares for round two of the next step: “Outer Planet Chaos.”

Interestingly enough, the peak of the outer planets’ ingresses and aspects is June 15, one day after President Trump’s 79th birthday. It will be the dominant cosmic signature of his next year of life. The influence of a solar return chart actually begins 90 days before one’s birthdate, so it’s already manifesting. In addition to Jupiter (exaggeration) square both Saturn (control struggles and obstacles of delay) and Neptune (lack of controls), there is also a potentially dangerous Mars/Uranus square unfolding then, with transiting Mars conjoining Mr. Trump’s natal ascendant and Mars. This is yet another key dynamic in his solar return chart for the year. His status may be in jeopardy if his master economic plan is not working out. The stock market could tank into not just a 3-year cycle low but possibly an even more destabilizing 18-year cycle trough.

The Mars/Uranus square is of major interest because Uranus is already in the midst of its conjunction with the Sun/Mercury conjunction in the founding chart of the New York Stock Exchange, founded on May 17, 1792. Transiting Uranus is also in square aspect to the NYSE natal Pluto in Aquarius. This transiting cosmic hard aspect has been in effect since May 2024 and will end right about the time that transiting Mars will square Uranus in late Taurus on June 15. With the all-time high in U.S. stocks occurring between December 2024 and February 2025 and then the huge sell-off since then, it is apparent that Uranus – the planet of sudden reversals and breakouts of yearly support and resistance zones – is very much in play now. This volatility could climax in mid-June.

Can this ominous outlook be avoided? Of course. All the president has to do is choose to wrap up the negotiations on trade agreements between himself and the rest of the world before mid-May (Sun conjunct Uranus) or mid-June (the peak of the outer planet hard aspects). He has to actually close these deals with other countries besides Argentina. Americans (everyone) need to see that the world is on board with his vision, crude as it is being laid out and that it is not just an obsession or delusionary fantasy of his imagination. End the chaos and uncertainty. Provide a sense of stability by bringing home deals going forward with the trade situation. Will he do it? Can he do it? Maybe. Transiting Jupiter (world trade) will be entering Cancer (love of country), conjoining the U.S. natal Venus (money) and Jupiter (hope and optimism) from mid-June through early July. That is a geocosmic dynamic that could help the U.S. regain its mojo. It could end this nonsensical pattern of retreat, start, retreat, start that has been so ongoing during this retrograde chaos of early 2025 and is likely to continue for another two months or so if this course of action doesn’t show results soon.

For this week, we note that Venus not only turns direct, but it is still in an orb of conjunction with Saturn from April 7 through April 25. People are worried (Saturn) about their finances and relationships (Venus), as well as the nation’s. This is significant because Saturn also conjoins the Lunar North Node in late Pisces early this week. Our studies have shown this to exhibit a 70% historical correlation to an economic slowdown (even recession) within the year. People (and nations) will be defensive in financial matters as previously planned bold decisions are put on pause.

The Saturn/Node conjunction might explain why so many are worried and a bit anxious about the future. We are moving from one huge Saturn cycle to another between August 2024 and February 2026. It’s also the heart of the “Aries Vortex.” It can feel as if falling into an abyss, a black hole. But there is a bottom to this plunge into the unknown. Saturn periods require patience. Patience is a lot harder to acquire than information or knowledge, which is often not truth. But when you evolve in both of these steps (usually through experience), it leads to wisdom. This is the time to be patient (not impatient), to be reflective (not reactive), and develop wisdom. Wisdom provides the light that leads one out of the tunnel of darkness.

Ponder this. Don’t ponder that.