Saxo Team of Analysts - HK
Saxo Capital Market HK Ltd
Introduction
A bumper US NFP print of 292k in comparison to 200k expected has led the market to envisage a more hawkish Federal Reserve in 2016, which has enticed a more risk-off environment with regards to the global economic outlook. Chinese inflation data released over the weekend proved largely in line with expectations but sentiment remains incredibly nervous, despite the lower USD/CNY fixing for the second business day in a row.
Asian Session
The Japanese enjoy their first holiday of the year today. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite Indices lost ground with the latter coming off by close to 5%. USD/CNY trades currently at 6.5843 currently.
Despite the holiday in Japan, there have been buyers of JPY evident with USD/JPY down at 117.13. The pair has reached a low of 116.70 overnight amidst safe-haven buying. Long term support can be seen at 115.58; the level for the pair at the time of the oil shock upon the Russian economy in December 2014.
Antipodean currencies have remained largely stagnant. ANZ job advertisement info. came in at -0.1% compared to 1.3% last. Australian stocks were hit in line with Asian bourses. AUD/USD and NZD/USD trade at .6968 and .6535 respectively whilst the AUD/NZD cross stands at 1.0662 right now.
The day ahead in Europe and NY
European equity futures are expected to open lower this morning. The Swiss Franc has gained 0.15% against G10 counterparties ahead of the release of retail sales out of Zurich at 08:15 GMT.
Scandinavia sees a fairly busy morning of data releases with Danish inflation and trade balance data printing at 08:00 GMT. USD/DKK trades at 6.8322 into the release whilst USD/NOK stands at 8.8944 in anticipation of Norwegian inflation data at 09:00 GMT.
EUR/USD and EUR/GBP are trading at 1.0919 and .7511 at the beginning of the week. European traders will look to Sentix Investor Confidence info. published at 09:30 GMT today.
Later in The States and Canada, housing data is released out of Toronto at 13:15 GMT. Both labour market conditions info. for The US and a business outlook survey for Canada will be released at 15:00 GMT and 15:30 GMT respectively. Later at 17:40 GMT, Dennis P. Lockhart of The Federal Reserve will speak.
Spot
| Last | % since US Close | High | Low | |
| EURUSD | 1.0919 | -0.02% | 1.097 | 1.0908 |
| USDJPY | 117.13 | 0.04% | 117.48 | 116.7 |
| GBPUSD | 1.4535 | 0.13% | 1.4559 | 1.4494 |
| AUDUSD | 0.6968 | 0.27% | 0.6983 | 0.6928 |
| NZDUSD | 0.6535 | -0.11% | 0.6568 | 0.6509 |
FXO
Overnight EUR/USD trades at volatility of approx. 17.0% which seems high without any notable data or events today or tomorrow. On Thursday, ahead of US employment figures, overnight EUR/USD strikes traded at approx. 19.0%.
The largest sentiment change within the retail currency options space at Saxo Bank A/S comes regarding USD/CHF options. 42% of traders now favour the upside which is a move higher by 6% since this time on Friday.
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