Saxo Team of Analysts - HK
Saxo Capital Market HK Ltd
USD stages broad comeback, especially against commodity dollars
USDCAD hits new more than 11year high
CAD and NOK dented by Opec's failure to agree on any production curtailment
EURUSD consolidates back toward first support in the 1.0800 area
Key developments in FX today:
The US dollar staged a relatively broad comeback today after looking very weak on Friday, with USDCAD pulling to a new 11-plus-years high and AUDUSD and NZDUSD the most interesting of strong USD statements, as the commodity dollars were the weakest performers.
CAD and NOK were very weak broadly on lower oil prices after Opec failed to reach agreement on any action to curtail production.
Elsewhere, the euro spike from last Thursday consolidated further, with EURUSD back toward the 1.0800 area of first support and EURGBP shying away from the key resistance area above 0.7200. The equivalent EURJPY area is the 134.00/50 zone around the 200-day moving average.
The focus later this week will be on central bank meetings on Thursday, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which could see NZDUSD challenging the key local support area around 0.6600 again if the bank is sufficiently dovish, and the Swiss National Bank, which may need to respond to the ECB's easing measures to keep EURCHF in the higher range.
The Bank of England could bring fewer developments, but could spark volatility in the main GBP crosses. GBPUSD seems to have popped higher on last week's EURUSD tsunami rather than on any fresh relative developments.
USDCAD
USDCAD burst to a new more than 11-year high today and could see further upside if the USD remains resilient and especially if oil prices trade significantly lower. Support now moves up to the 1.3400/50 zone, and the next target area looks like at least 1.3650 and possibly 1.3750.
NZDUSD
The kiwi squeezed sharply higher through local resistance late Friday, a move that in 20-20 hindsight looks to have been stop-loss-driven. Today's reversal suggests the direction for the pair is far from settled, and a sufficiently dovish surprise from the RBNZ (merely cutting as the majority expect, together with reasonably dovish guidance) could see the pair push down through the 0.6600 area, which could finally open up for a test of the 0.6250 area lows again.
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