The pound has been on a tear today, rising across the board. The GBP/JPY has led the advance, thanks to ongoing “risk-on” rally undermining the Japanese yen. The GBP/USD is also up sharply and is the pair to watch ahead of today’s publication of US August retail sales and the Federal Reserve rate decision next week.

Sentiment has turned positive towards the pound in recent days as investors price out the risks of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal, after a bill became law that forces the government to seek an extension beyond October 31 deadline in order to avoid a no-deal Brexit. It remains to be seen however whether the pound will be able to reclaim further lost ground, given the current state of British politics and uncertain times over the coming months.

Regardless of the longer-term fundamental backdrop, short-term traders need to watch incoming data and price action closely here.

Today, US retail sales has the potential to move the dollar, which in turn could impact the GBP/USD exchange rate should we get a sizeable deviation from the expected readings. Headline retail sales are seen rising 0.2% month-over-month following a 0.7% jump the month before. Core sales are expected to come in at +0.1% after a +1.0% print in July.

Form a technical point of view, the current price structure on the cable is that of a reversal profile following that false breakdown attempt below the 1.20 handle earlier this month. Since then, the bears have been getting trapped as rates squeezed higher. But now we have arrived at an inflection point near the 1.25 handle.

At 1.2475, the GBP/USD was testing the low from last year, at the time of this wiring. Once support, this level has the potential to turn into major resistance. Slightly above the psychologically-important 1.25 handle we have the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level against last year’s high. Given the convergence of these technical factors, there is a chance for a pullback of some sort here. 

In terms of the next key support, the area between 1.2365 and 1.2385 was the most recent resistance range to keep an eye on. Now that we have broken above it, the bulls will need to defend this zone upon a potential re-test. However, in the event price breaks back below this zone, then this would flip the bias back to the bearish side. Specifically, a break below 1.2285 is required to completely invalidate the bullish bias.

Meanwhile, in the event that the GBP/USD eventually clears and holds above the 1.25 handle, then in that case we could see the rally extend towards the 50% retracement level at 1.2670 or even the 200-day moving average around the 1.2735 area.

Figure 1:

Chart

Source: eSignal and FOREX.com.

Trading leveraged products such as FX, CFDs and Spread Bets carry a high level of risk which means you could lose your capital and is therefore not suitable for all investors. All of this website’s contents and information provided by Fawad Razaqzada elsewhere, such as on telegram and other social channels, including news, opinions, market analyses, trade ideas, trade signals or other information are solely provided as general market commentary and do not constitute a recommendation or investment advice. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our disclaimer, terms and policies.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD consolidates weekly gains above 1.1150

EUR/USD consolidates weekly gains above 1.1150

EUR/USD moves up and down in a narrow channel slightly above 1.1150 on Friday. In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, comments from central bank officials and the risk mood could drive the pair's action heading into the weekend.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD stabilizes near 1.3300, looks to post strong weekly gains

GBP/USD stabilizes near 1.3300, looks to post strong weekly gains

GBP/USD trades modestly higher on the day near 1.3300, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales data for August. The pair remains on track to end the week, which featured Fed and BoE policy decisions, with strong gains. 

GBP/USD News
Gold extends rally to new record-high above $2,610

Gold extends rally to new record-high above $2,610

Gold (XAU/USD) preserves its bullish momentum and trades at a new all-time high above $2,610 on Friday. Heightened expectations that global central banks will follow the Fed in easing policy and slashing rates lift XAU/USD.

Gold News
Week ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap

Week ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap

SNB is expected to ease for third time; might cut by 50bps. RBA to hold rates but could turn less hawkish as CPI falls. After inaugural Fed cut, attention turns to PCE inflation.

Read more
Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets

Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest rate target between 0.15% and 0.25% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review. The decision is set to be announced during the early Asian session. 

Read more
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures