Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
GBP/USD
Cable hit new 2023 high on Tuesday on fresh bullish acceleration which extends into the second consecutive day.
Sterling received fresh support from weaker than expected US producer prices in May, which showed the smallest annual increase in 2 ½ years, adding to expectations that the Fed will stay on hold in June meeting which ends today.
Pound was also underpinned by hawkish rate outlook, as the Bank of England remains on track for further rate hikes, in a battle with inflation which is currently more than four times higher than BoE’s target, while economists remain optimistic and say that the economy is unlikely to enter recession.
The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by additional 25 basis points to 4.75% in June 22 meeting, with economists being divided about terminal rate, expecting peak at 5.00% and 5.50% range, while markets see rates climbing to 5.75% before start to turn lower.
Strongly hawkish stance of UK policymakers fuels pound’s latest rally, which broke through previous peak and turning focus towards next targets at 1.2759 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.4249/1.0348 downtrend) and 1.2874 (200WMA) which guards psychological 1.30 barrier.
Bulls require daily close above 1.2679 (former annual top of May 10) to be confirmed, with all eyes being on Fed.
The US central bank is likely to pause this time, but markets will be closely watching comments from Fed Chair Powell, for more clues about their next steps.
Initial supports lay at 1.2600/1.2590 zone (session low / rising 5DMA) followed by 1.2534 (daily cloud top) and 1.2521 (10DMA).
Res: 1.2700; 1.2759; 1.2874; 1.3000.
Sup: 1.2600; 1.2534; 1.2487; 1.2457.
Interested in GBP/USD technicals? Check out the key levels
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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