GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling loses strength after failing to clear technical hurdle
- GBP/USD retreats to the 1.2300 area after posting small losses on Wednesday.
- The technical picture points to a diminishing buyer interest in the near term.
- The US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims data.
GBP/USD climbed to a two-week-high near 1.2380 in the European session on Wednesday but lost its traction to close the day marginally lower. The pair edges lower toward 1.2300 in the European morning on Thursday and the technical outlook highlights a loss of bullish momentum in the near term.
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.19% | -1.07% | 0.23% | -0.53% | -1.22% | -1.23% | -0.64% | |
| EUR | 1.19% | 0.06% | 1.35% | 0.56% | 0.02% | -0.16% | 0.43% | |
| GBP | 1.07% | -0.06% | 1.21% | 0.50% | -0.02% | -0.22% | 0.36% | |
| JPY | -0.23% | -1.35% | -1.21% | -0.75% | -1.41% | -1.56% | -1.06% | |
| CAD | 0.53% | -0.56% | -0.50% | 0.75% | -0.63% | -0.71% | -0.14% | |
| AUD | 1.22% | -0.02% | 0.02% | 1.41% | 0.63% | -0.27% | 0.33% | |
| NZD | 1.23% | 0.16% | 0.22% | 1.56% | 0.71% | 0.27% | 0.40% | |
| CHF | 0.64% | -0.43% | -0.36% | 1.06% | 0.14% | -0.33% | -0.40% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) came under bearish pressure in the first half of the day on Wednesday as risk flows dominated the action in financial markets. Although Wall Street's main indexes opened higher, rising US Treasury bond yields helped the USD hold its ground in the American session.
The US Department of Labor will publish the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data later in the day. Investors forecast the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits to rise to 220,000 in the week ending January 18 from 217,000 in the previous week. A print below 210,000 could allow the USD to gather strength and force GBP/USD to stay on the back foot. In case this data comes in above 230,000, it would point to a cooldown in the labor market and weigh on the USD.
On Friday, preliminary January Manufacturing and Services PMI reports from the UK and the US could provide important directional clues for GBP/USD heading into the weekend.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index indicator on the 4-hour chart retreats toward 50 and GBP/USD remains below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently located at 1.2320, after closing the last four candles below that level, reflecting buyers' hesitancy.
On the downside, 1.2270 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of the latest downtrend) aligns as first support before 1.2240 (50-period SMA) and 1.2200 (round level, static level).
In case GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2320 (100-period SMA), it could face stiff resistance at 1.2360-1.2370 (20-day SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) before testing 1.2400 (round level, static level).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
