Forecasting the Coming Week: US PCE could confirm rate cut bets

Despite an ugly start to the week, the Greenback eventually managed to make a U-turn and end the week with decent gains along with a modest bounce in US yields. Across the ocean, the ECB delivered a dovish hold, while stubborn UK inflation kicked back expectations of a BoE rate cut in August.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) regained composure towards the end of the week and managed to close above the 104.00 mark. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is due on July 22, followed by Existing Home Sales on July 23. Mortgage Applications tracked by MBA are expected on July 24, along with advanced Goods Trade Balance, preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and New Home Sales. Durable Goods Orders and the flash Q2 GDP Growth Rate come on July 25, ahead of Initial Jobless Claims. On July 26, inflation tracked by the PCE takes centre stage, seconded by the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Following three consecutive weekly gains, EUR/USD shed some ground despite advancing well north of 1.0900 earlier in the week. The flash Consumer Confidence gauge comes on July 23 followed by Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence and preliminary HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs in the euro area and Germany. On July 25, the IFO institute will release its Business Climate in Germany.

GBP/USD advanced beyond the key 1.3000 barrier earlier in the week, although the move fizzled out afterwards, leaving spot with marginal losses for the week. In the UK, advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be published on July 24.

USD/JPY retreated for the third week in a row on the back of FX intervention by the MoF/BoJ to support the yen. On July 24, the flash Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due, while weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are expected on July 25, and the final Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index are due on July 26.

AUD/USD halted its multi-week steep rebound and retreated in every session this week, breaking below the 0.6700 band on Friday, or two-week lows. The advanced Judo Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be the only release of note in Oz on July 24.

Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon

• The Fed’s Bowman and Logan speak on July 24.
• The ECB’s Nagel speaks on July 25.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policies

• The Hungarian central bank (MNB) meets on July 23.
• The BoC will decide on rates on July 24.
• The CBRT will meet on July 25.