Forecasting the Coming Week: The US PCE will unlikely move the Fed’s dial

Another strong week for the Greenback left risk-sensitive assets on the defensive, with the central bank's policy divergence narrative remaining the key driver behind the robust advance of the US Dollar.

The Greenback regained further traction and propelled the USD Index (DXY) to fresh seven-week highs just pips short of the 106.00 hurdle. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the FHFA House Price Index, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence are due on June 25, seconded by MBA’s Mortgage Applications and New Home Sales on June 26. On June 27, the usual Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, advanced Goods Trade Balance, Pending Home Sales, and the final Q1 GDP Growth Rate are all due. Finally, the PCE, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment are all expected on June 28.

EUR/USD ended its third consecutive week of losses in response to the unabated bullish stance in the US Dollar. The IFO Business Climate in Germany comes on June 25, while the GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany is due on June 26. The final Consumer Confidence in the euro area, along with the Economic Sentiment and Industrial Sentiment in the region, will be unveiled on June 27, followed by German Retail Sales and the labour market report on June 28.

A poor second half of the week sentenced GBP/USD to close at four-week lows in the low-1.2600s on the back of the stronger Greenback and the dovish BoE. The UK final Q1 GDP Growth Rate takes centre stage on June 28.

There was no respite to the upside bias in USD/JPY, which advanced to seven-week highs north of the 159.00 barrier as investors continued to assess a dovish BoJ and the Dollar’s rally. The BoJ Summary of Opinions is due on June 24, ahead of the final Coincident Index and the Leading Economic Index on June 25. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment is due on June 27, while the Unemployment Rate, Housing Starts, Retail Sales, and preliminary Industrial Production will all be published on June 28.

Despite losses in the last couple of sessions, AUD/USD managed well to clinch its second straight week of gains, supported by the hawkish stance of the RBA. The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index comes on June 25 ahead of the Westpac Leading Index and the RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator on June 26. Consumer Inflation Expectations are due on June 27 prior to Housing Credit figures on June 28.

Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon

• The Fed’s Waller and Daly speak on June 24 along with the ECB’s Nagel and the BoC’s Macklem
• The Fed’s Bowman and Cook, and the ECB’s Nagel will speak on June 25.
• The RBA’s Kent is expected to speak on June 26.
• The BoE’s Bailey and Hauser speak on June 27
• The Fed’s Barkin and Bowman are due to speak on June 28.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policies

• Banxico, the CBRT, the BSP and the Riksbank will all decide on interest rates on June 27.