Forecasting the Coming Week: Data, politics and the ECB Forum take centre stage

In quite an uneventful week, the Greenback and the risk-linked assets kept their recent ranges barely changed. Moving forward, the US Dollar should remain under scrutiny in light of the participation of Chief Powell at the ECB Forum and the release of the US NFP on July 5. In addition, investors should closely follow the annual meeting of the ECB in Portugal, while politics will also be in the spotlight following the French snap elections on June 30 and the UK General Elections on July 4.

The Greenback ended the week in the middle of the range after the earlier move to tops past the 106.00 hurdle lacked follow-through. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI comes on July 1, along with the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending. On July 2, Chair Powell speaks at the ECB Forum, while the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is due. A very busy calendar on July 3 includes MBA’s Mortgage Applications, the ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Balance of Trade figures, Factory Orders, the final S&P Global Services PMI, the ISM Services PMI, and the publication of the FOMC Minutes. US markets will be closed on July 4 due to the Independence Day holiday. Finally, Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate will close the docket on July 5.

EUR/USD managed to close its first week of gains after three consecutive pullbacks, reclaiming the area beyond the 1.0700 barrier. The ECB Forum in Sintra (Portugal) kicks in on July 1; in addition, the final HCOB Manufacturing PMI is due in Germany and the broader Euroland ahead of the preliminary Inflation Rate in Germany. On July 2, the advanced Inflation Rate in the euro area is expected, along with the Unemployment Rate in the whole bloc. The final HCOB Services PMI is due in Germany and the euro bloc on July 3, while Retail Sales in the euro zone will be unveiled on July 5.

A small recovery allowed GBP/USD to reverse part of the recent weakness and set aside three weeks in a row in negative territory. The Nationwide Housing Prices come on July 1, seconded by the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Mortgage Approvals and Mortgage Lending. In addition, the final S&P Global Services PMI is due on July 3. On July 4, comes the UK General Election.

USD/JPY closed its third straight week of gains, reaching fresh multi-decade tops north of the 161.00 mark. The Consumer Confidence gauge opens the Japanese docket on July 1, followed by the Tankan survey on July 3. The usual weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures will be released on July 4, while Household Spending, and the advanced Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index come on July 5.

Despite trading within a consolidative range, AUD/USD advanced for the third week in a row, although a test or surpass of the 0.6700 hurdle remained elusive. The final Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI will be released on July 1, ahead of the RBA Minutes on July 2. On July 3, the Ai Group Industry Index will be followed by preliminary Building Permits and Retail Sales. The Balance of Trade results will close the calendar in Oz on July 4.

Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon

• The ECB’s Nagel and Lagarde are expected to speak on July 1.
• The Fed’s Powell and ECB’s Lagarde speak at the ECB Forum in Portugal on July 2.
• The Fed’s Williams speaks on July 3 along with the ECB’s Lagarde.
• The ECB’s Nagel and Lagarde will speak on July 5, followed by the Fed’s Williams.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policies

• The National Bank of Poland (NBP) meets on July 3.