Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
Alvin Tan, FX Strategist at Societe Generale, on Greenback
What performance do you expect from the US Dollar versus its major counterparts during the second quarter of this year?
Actually, I believe there is a positive consolidation in the Dollar over the next 1-2 months. Longer than that, I suppose the Dollar will still outperform, but the shorter term, I think, there will be some strengthening as the market loves the very much Dollar at this point. Thus, I believe there will be a flash start at some extent.
What will be the main drivers for the Dollar during the second quarter of this year?
I suppose the most important driver will indeed be the expectations of the Federal Reserve rate hike. There are quite a lot of talks that Fed is going to raise interest rates either in June or in September.
Over the following quarter, it looks like the Fed is going to push back later, say, in September rather than in June. If that would happen, I believe the Dollar will not be able to advance much. Thus, the most important is the Federal Reserve expectations.
What are your forecasts for the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD and the USD/JPY for the second quarter of this year?
We forecast the EUR/USD to be at around 1.07 levels by the end of Q2. The USD/JPY we expect to see at 122 by June. And talking about the GBP/USD currency pair, we can see it rolling up to 1.49 levels.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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