Everything Was OK Until

Good Morning Traders,

As of this writing 3:50 AM EST, here’s what we see:

US Dollar: Mar. USD is Up at 89.690.
Energies: April '18 Crude is Up at 60.78.
Financials: The Mar 30 year bond is Up 12 ticks and trading at 144.16.
Indices: The Mar S&P 500 emini ES contract is 2 ticks Higher and trading at 2773.25.
Gold: The April gold contract is trading Down at 1326.00.  Gold is 11 ticks Lower than its close.

Initial Conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is Up+ and Crude is Up+ which is not normal and the 30 year Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Up+ which is not correlated. Gold is trading Down- which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up+.   I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

At this hour all of Asia trading Lower.  All of Europe is also trading Lower at this hour as well.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today

  • Core Retail Sales is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is major.

  • Retail Sales is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is major.

  • PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is major.

  • Core PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is major.

  • Business Inventories is out at 10 AM EST.  This is not major.

  • Crude Oil Inventories is out at 10:30 AM EST.  This is major.

Treasuries

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract.  The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZB made it's move at around 8 AM.  The ZB hit a High at around that time and the YM hit a Low.  If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 8 AM EST and the YM was moving Higher at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a High at around 8 AM and the YM hit a Low.  These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 30 minute chart to display better.  This represented a Shorting opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 15 plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $31.25.

Charts Courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform

Pre-Market Global Review

Pre-Market Global Review

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets an Upside bias as Crude, the Bonds and Gold were all trading Lower and this is usually reflective of an upside day.  The markets had other ideas as the Dow dropped 172 points and the other indices lost ground as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Neutral.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday we gave the markets an Upside bias as the Bonds, Gold and Crude were all trading Lower and this usually signals an upside day.  Interestingly enough when the markets opened they migrated higher.  However it was soon announced that President Trump decided to fire Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.  Folks, this may sound like an oxymoron but the markets do not like uncertainty or anything that reeks of uncertainty.  You may ask how can that be when the markets are the most uncertain environment on the planet.  It is one thing when an event occurs that is beyond anyone's control (hurricane, volcano, etc.).  This becomes more understandable and acceptable.  It quite another when a person causes it as that's preventable.  It's apparent that Trump is running the Presidency like a game of the Apprentice.  Hey Prez, here's a little newsflash for you: when reporting this kind of news, do it after the market closes.  Believe me you'll be saving all of us a lot of money.

Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. The following Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disclaimer should be noted.

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Trading in the commodities markets involves substantial risk and YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY, and thus is not appropriate for everyone. You should carefully consider your financial condition before trading in these markets, and only risk capital should be used.

In addition, these markets are often liquid, making it difficult to execute orders at desired prices. Also, during periods of extreme volatility, trading in these markets may be halted due to so-called “circuit breakers” put in place by the CME to alleviate such volatility. In the event of a trading halt, it may be difficult or impossible to exit a losing position.