Even higher terminal

S&P 500 held in the 3,980 – 4,015 range yesterday, namely having defended the 3,980 support, and making it back above 4,015 solidly. The trip towards 4,045 had though been cancelled a bit too abruptly as those believing in Fed‘s no / soft landing fantasies while financial conditions continue inordinately easing in the face of central bank tightening left and right.

Last week‘s PPI and naturally also the calculation changes to CPI, were a mere preview as much as this week‘s data from Sweden. Today‘s core PCE (the measure that the Fed places solid emphasis on) came truly outside the expected range – and that triggers yet another immediate and significant change of market expectations as to the degree of Fed tightening ahead regardless of how pressed the consumer or job market get.

That means 3,980 is now overhead resistance in S&P 500, and 3,910 can be easily reached either today or on Monday as another plunge in bonds looms, and copper with silver confirm.

Key chart, universally relevant is bonds (together with the dollar that should close at least 105.40 today so as to confirm the risk-off shift as likely to continue through Monday on account of the sheer power of newly recognizing perhaps even 50bp in Mar with two more hikes before Jun is over (short end of the curve never lies), and Fed funds rate really closer to 6% than 5.50%, the latter having seemed outrageous as late as only one week ago).