EU Mid-Market Update: Euro Zone Mar CPI surges to record high; focus on US jobs report for hints of any aggressive rate hikes.

- Euro Zone flash CPI at a fresh record high at 7.5%(move echoes the various national inflation prints in region).

- Major European Mar Manufacturing PMI revised lower in final readings but stay in expansion territory.

- Focus on upcoming US jobs report; Markets to gauge whether it could prompt FOMC on a potential 50bp hike in May.

- Central bank focus shifting to fighting inflation than supporting growth.

- Russia and Ukraine talks continuing.


- China Mar Caixin PMI Manufacturing registered its 1st contraction in 3 months and lowest since 2020 (48.1 v 49.9e).

- Australia Mar Final PMI Manufacturing confirmed 22nd month of expansion (57.7 v 57.3 prelim).

- Japan Mar Final PMI Manufacturing confirmed its 14th consecutive expansion (54.1 v 53.2 prelim.

- Japan Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index: 14 v 12e; Manufacturing Outlook: 9 v 10e.

- Japan Q1 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index: 9 v 8e; Non-Manufacturing Outlook: 7 v 8e.

- Japan Fin Min Suzuki reiterated stance that FX stability was important, and sharp moves in FX were undesirable (in line); BOJ had an inflation target, not a FX target.

- Possibility of PBOC cutting the RRR this month has risen on the back of policy signal that more support may be launched soon.

- New RBA Dep Gov Bullock has been appointed replacing Debelle.

- Most of China city of Shanghai’s 26m residents remain in lockdown to stop the spread of Covid (note: official numbers show local cases falling for a 2nd day).


- Russia/Ukraine negotiations are set to restart on Friday.

- European gas buyers have gone through the deadline where they’re expected to start paying for gas in rubles.


- President Biden: Putin's war is imposing costs on Americans and its allies; Understands pain at gas pump. Called on allies to release 30-50M barrels of oil; The SPR release could cut gasoline prices by 10-35 cents per gallon but would depend on how much our allies released from reserves.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum


Indices [Stoxx600 +0.38% at 457.60, FTSE +0.36% at 7,542.64, DAX +0.21% at 14,444.76, CAC-40 +0.36% at 6,683.65, IBEX-35 +0.82% at 8,514.50, FTSE MIB +0.52% at 25,151.00, SMI -0.11% at 12,148.22, S&P 500 Futures %].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open mixed but later moved to trade modestly positive; sectors among those leading higher are financials and consumer discretionary; sectors inclined to the downside include technology and real estate; Cyprus closed for holiday; Yit sells its Russia business to Etalon; Randall & Quilter receives takeover offer by Brickell; focus on NFP data release later in the day; earnings expected during the upcoming US session include Dominion Energy.


- Consumer discretionary: Sodexo [SW.FR] -7.5% (earnings).

- Energy: Gazprom [GAZP.RU] +4% (said to have booked some gas transit capacity for Yamal-Europe pipeline for Apr 1st).

- Financials: Randall & Quilter [RQIH.UK] +11.5% (offer to be acquired).

- Healthcare: Stratec [SBS.DE] +17% (attracts PE interest).


- Russia Central Bank (CBR) said often restrictions on FX transfers abroad for individuals to $10,000 from $5,000 per month, but measures did not apply to residents and non-residents from countries that imposed sanctions against Russia over Ukraine.

- According to Proekt investigation, Russian Pres Putin constantly accompanied by medical team in his trips, including doctor specializing in thyroid cancer.

Currencies/Fixed income

- FX market were relatively quiet with focus on upcoming US jobs report; Markets to gauge the data whether it could prompt FOMC on a potential 50bp hike in May.

- Safe-haven demand remained in focus with Russia and Ukraine talks continuing.

- EUR/USD at 1.1060 area despite Euro Zone flash CPI at a fresh record high. ECB has been vocal in noting that inflation remained around the 2% target under all scenarios for the 2024 period.

- USD/JPY at 122.50 in the aftermath that BOJ to step up JGB bond buying in April to maintain its yield control target.

Economic data

- (FI) Finland Feb House Price Index M/M: 1.5% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.1% prior.

- (RU) Russia Mar PMI Manufacturing: 44.1 v 42.0e (2nd straight contraction).

- (SE) Sweden Mar PMI Manufacturing: 57.3 v 57.8e (22nd month of expansion).

- (CH) Swiss Mar CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.4%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5%e.

- (CH) Swiss Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.9% prior.

- (FR) France Feb YTD Budget Balance: -€37.6B v -€15.9B prior.

- (AT) Austria Mar Preliminary CPI M/M: 2.0% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.8% v 5.9% prior.

- (NL) Netherlands Mar Manufacturing PMI: 58.4 v 59.3e (20th straight expansion).

- (TR) Turkey Mar PMI Manufacturing: 49.4 v 50.4 prior (1st contraction in 10 months).

- (PL) Poland Mar PMI Manufacturing: 52.7 v 53.1e (21st month of expansion).

- (HU) Hungary Mar Manufacturing PMI: 57.6 v 52.0e (12th straight expansion).

- (HU) Hungary Jan Final Trade Balance: -€0.2B v -€0.2B prelim.

- (ES) Spain Mar Manufacturing PMI: 54.2 v 55.7e (14th month of expansion).

- (CH) Swiss Mar PMI Manufacturing: 64.0 v 61.0e (20th straight expansion).

- (CZ) Czech Republic Mar PMI Manufacturing: 54.7 v 55.3e (19th straight expansion but lowest since Nov 2020).

- (TH) Thailand Mar Business Sentiment Index: 50.7 v 47.8 prior.

- (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 93.1K v 102.1K tons prior.

- (IT) Italy Mar Manufacturing PMI: 55.8 v 57.0e (21st month of expansion but lowest reading since Jan 2021).

- (FR) France Mar Final Manufacturing PMI: 54.7 v 54.8 prelim (confirmed 16thmonth of expansion).

- (DE) Germany Mar Final Manufacturing PMI: 56.9 v 57.6 prelim (confirmed 21st month of expansion but lowest since Sept 2020).

- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Final Manufacturing PMI: 57.0 v 57.0 prelim (confirmed 21st month of expansion).

- (GR) Greece Mar Manufacturing PMI: 54.6 v 57.8 prior (13th month of expansion).

- (NO) Norway Mar PMI Manufacturing: (19th month of expansion).

- (NO) Norway Mar Unemployment Rate: 2.0% v 2.1%e.

- (PL) Poland Mar Preliminary CPI M/M: 3.2% 2.4%e; Y/Y: 10.9% v 9.8%.

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Mar 25th (RUB): 15.34T v 16.17T prior.

- (NG) Nigeria Mar PMI Manufacturing: 54.1 v 57.3 prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Advance CPI Estimate Y/Y: 7.5% v 6.7%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.1%e.

- (ZA) South Africa Mar Absa Manufacturing PMI: 60.0 v 58.3e (8th month of expansion).

- (DK) Denmark Mar PMI Survey: 62.1 v 50.8 prior.

Fixed income issuance

- None seen.

Looking ahead

- (RO) Romania Mar International Reserves: No est v $47.5B prior.

- (ZA) South Africa Mar Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 4.1%e v 18.4% prior.

- (US) Mar Total Vehicle Sales data.

- (EU) China-EU Summit.

- (PT) ECB's Centeno (Portugal).

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR1.2B in I/L 2033, 2038 and 2046 Bonds.

- 05:45 (ES) ECB's de Cos (Spain).

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Feb Industrial Production M/M: No est v -5.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.2% prior.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £0.5B and £1.0B respectively).

- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell OLO Bonds.

- 06:00 (IE) ECB's : Makhlouf (Ireland).

- 06:30 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Ohlsson.

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:30 (CL) Chile Feb Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: No est v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: 8.0%e v 9.0% prior.

- 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e Mar 25th: No est v $B prior.

- 07:45 (US) Mar CBIZ Small Business Employment Index: No est v -0.09% prior.

- 08:00 (CZ) Czech Mar Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -45.3B prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Industrial Production M/M: +0.5%e v -2.4% prior; Y/Y: -4.9%e v -7.2% prior.

- 08:00 Norway Finance Ministry White Paper on Sovereign Wealth Fund.

- 08:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).

- 08:30 (US) Mar Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +490Ke v +678K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +496Ke v +654K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +32Ke v +36K prior.

- 08:30 (US) Mar Unemployment Rate: 3.7%e v 3.8% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 7.2% prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4%e v 62.3% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Mar Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.4%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 5.5%e v 5.1% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.7e v 34.7 prior.

- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 49.6 prior.

- 09:05 (US) Fed's Evans.

- 09:30 (CA) Canada Mar Manufacturing PMI: No est v 56.6 prior.

- 09:45 (US) Mar Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 59.0e v 58.5 prelim.

- 10:00 (US) Mar ISM Manufacturing: 59.0e v 58.6 prior; Prices Paid: 80.0e v 75.6 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Feb Construction Spending M/M: 1.0%e v 1.3% prior.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 52.0 prior.

- 11:00 (PE) Peru Mar CPI M/M: 0.9%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.2% prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Total Remittances: $3.9Be v $3.9B prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey.

- 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close (Moody's Sovereign Credit Rating on Spain).

- 11:30 (MX) Mexico Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 48.0 prior.

- 12:00 (IT) Italy Mar New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -22.6% prior.

- (IT) Italy Mar Budget Balance: No est v -€4.2B prior.

- 12:00 (CH) SNB’s Maechler.

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.

- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Trade Balance: $9.7Be v $4.1B prior; Total Exports: $31.2Be v $22.9B prior; Total Imports: $21.4Be v $18.9B prior.

- 14:00 (MX) Mexico Mar IMEF Manufacturing Index: 51.5e v 55.0 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: 50.0e v 50.5 prior.

All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

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