EUR/USD Price Forecast: Wait-and-see continues ahead of key US employment data

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0529

• The Euro advances despite mixed Eurozone and German macroeconomic figures.
• Market players await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
• EUR/USD maintains its neutral stance, declines more likely once below 1.0500.

The EUR/USD pair trades with a better tone on Thursday, hovering in the 1.0530 price zone after bottoming at 1.0470 on Wednesday. The pair lacked directional momentum after falling at the beginning of the week, as investors await a catalyst that does not show up. Central bank officials’ words had no impact on the pair ahead of the December monetary policy meetings.

Neither did United States (US) employment-related figures, as market participants await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for Friday. Investors estimate that the country has added 200,000 new job positions in November, much better than the 12,000 from October. The Unemployment Rate is expected to print at 4.2%, slightly up from the previous 4.1%.

The Euro advances despite mixed local data. Germany reported that Factory Orders were down by 1.5% on a monthly basis in October, down from the 7.2% increase posted in September. Eurozone Retail Sales in the same month fell by 0.5%, worse than the 0.3% slide anticipated.

The US released the November Challenger Job Cuts report, which showed that US-based employers announced 57,727 cuts in November, a 3.8% increase from the 55,597 cuts announced one month prior. The country will release later weekly unemployment claims data and the October Trade Balance, not expected to have a relevant impact on EUR/USD.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is at risk of falling. The daily chart shows sellers keep containing advances around a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 100 and 200 SMAs slowly grind lower far above the shorter one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head nowhere below their midlines, reflecting the absence of solid buying interest.

The EUR/USD pair's near-term picture is neutral-to-bearish. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is stuck between mildly bearish 20 and 100 SMAs, while the 200 SMA gains downward traction far above the current level. Finally, technical indicators develop above their midlines yet lack directional momentum.

Support levels: 1.0465 1.0420 1.0370

Resistance levels: 1.0560 1.0625 1.0660