EUR/USD Price Forecast: US Dollar buyers stand victorious at end of 2024

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0402

• Most financial markets are closed or set to an early end on New Year’s Eve.
• Expectations about another Donald Trump presidency fuel demand for the USD.
• EUR/USD stuck around 1.0400 in the last trading day of 2024.

The EUR/USD pair is poised to close 2024 at around 1.0400, trading within a quite limited range on the final day of the year. The US Dollar (USD) stands as the overall winner, having advanced against all of its major rivals. The Euro (EUR) is not among its worst-performing rivals, yet it is down roughly 6% against it.

Indeed, Donald Trump’s victory is among the main reasons behind the Greenback’s momentum and the political, financial and monetary consequences of Trump’s second mandate, even without him taking office just yet.

For starters, his pledge to impose heavy tariffs on Chinese, Canadian and Mexican imports has fueled concerns about reignited inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has adopted a cautious stance in its December meeting and officials now see fewer interest rate cuts in 2025. The hawkish stance provided an extra boost to the USD in the final trading month of the year.

The fact that the United States (US) economy is performing better than those of its major peers adds to the USD bullish picture. Wall Street will operate regularly today, but bond markets are due to an early close. Little to no action is expected ahead of the New Year holiday, with financial markets coming back to life on January 2.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair is trading around its daily opening, stuck to a 30 pips range. The overall stance is bearish, as the daily chart shows a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) gaining downward traction and providing dynamic resistance at around 1.0470. At the same time, the 100 and 200 SMAs gain downward traction far above the shorter one, in line with the dominant selling interest. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have lost their directional strength but remain within negative levels.

The near-term picture is neutral-to-bearish. The 4-hour chart shows the pair seesaws around a flat 20 SMA while the longer ones maintain their downward slopes above the current level. Finally, technical indicators turned marginally lower but remained stuck around their midlines, lacking directional strength.

Support levels: 1.0370 1.0330 1.0290

Resistance levels: 1.0440 1.0470 1.0510