- EUR/USD dropped to weekly lows near 1.0380 on Wednesday.
- The US Dollar printed humble gains amid higher yields.
- The Federal Reserve left its rates unchanged, as widely expected.
The Euro (EUR) remained on the defensive for yet another day on Wednesday, this time retreating to four-day lows around 1.0380. This decline came as the US Dollar (USD) maintained its recovery well in place, driven by renewed concerns over potential US trade tariffs and following the neutral tone from the FOMC event.
In addition, the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed above 108.00 once again, hitting fresh four-day peaks alongside the continuation of the rebound in US yields across the curve.
Trade tariff jitters weigh on sentiment
Speculation about President Trump’s trade tariff policies has been keeping markets on edge since Inauguration Day on January 20. While the delay in imposing eurozone tariffs provided some short-term relief for the Euro, the lingering uncertainty continues to cloud the currency’s outlook.
Central banks in focus
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, leaving markets with few hints about when borrowing costs might come down. Despite solid economic growth, inflation remains above target, and unemployment is still low, giving the central bank little urgency to act.
In a notable shift, the Fed dropped its previous statement that inflation "has made progress" toward its 2% goal. Instead, officials now describe price pressures as "elevated," signalling caution as they wait for more evidence of cooling inflation. While policymakers still expect inflation to ease over time, they have put rate cuts on hold until data confirms the trend.
The decision to keep the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% was unanimous, reinforcing the Fed’s wait-and-see approach. With inflation and job market data still in focus, officials are also assessing the potential economic impact of President Trump’s trade and fiscal policies before making their next move.
Across the Atlantic, the ECB faces its own challenges. Led by President Christine Lagarde, the bank is expected to cut rates further on Thursday but is treading carefully to avoid overshooting its 2% inflation target or exacerbating economic slowdowns in the eurozone. Germany’s economic struggles and broader political uncertainties remain significant hurdles.
Tariff tensions could tip the scales
The ongoing threat of US trade tariffs looms large over the Euro’s prospects. If implemented, such tariffs could drive US inflation higher, potentially prompting a more hawkish stance from the Fed, which would strengthen the Dollar and pressure the Euro further. In such a scenario, the psychologically critical parity level (1.0000) for EUR/USD could re-enter the picture.
Technical outlook: Mixed signals
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is navigating choppy waters:
- Support lies at 1.0176, the YTD low from January 13, with the critical 1.0000 parity level below that.
- Resistance sits at the 2025 high of 1.0532 (January 27), followed by the December 2024 top of 1.0629 and the 100-day SMA at 1.0672.
- The broader bearish trend remains intact as long as the pair trades below the 200-day SMA at 1.0768.
Short-term indicators offer a mixed outlook. The RSI has dropped below 53, signalling waning bullish momentum, while the ADX near 24 suggests fading trend strength.
EUR/USD daily chart
The road ahead for the Euro
The Euro faces stiff headwinds, including the Dollar’s resilience, divergent ECB-Fed policies, and structural challenges within the eurozone, such as Germany’s slowdown. While short-term rallies remain possible, sustained gains for the Euro may prove elusive in the current environment.
What’s next for EUR/USD?
With the first major rate decisions of the year from both the Fed and the ECB, this week could set the tone for EUR/USD. Investors will also closely monitor key economic data, particularly inflation updates and any new developments in trade policies. For now, the battle between a resilient Dollar and the Euro’s internal struggles is likely to dominate the narrative in the weeks ahead.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD accelerates losses to 1.0930 on stronger Dollar
The US Dollar's recovery regains extra impulse sending the US Dollar Index to fresh highs and relegating EUR/USD to navigate the area of daily troughs around 1.0930 in the latter part of Friday's session.

GBP/USD plummets to four-week lows near 1.2850
The US Dollar's rebound keep gathering steam and now sends GBP/USD to the area of multi-week lows in the 1.2850 region amid the broad-based pullback in the risk-associated universe.

Gold trades on the back foot, flirts with $3,000
Gold prices are accelerating their daily decline, steadily approaching the critical $3,000 per troy ounce mark as the Greenback's rebound gains extra momentum and US yields tighten their retracement.

Can Maker break $1,450 hurdle as whales launch buying spree?
Maker holds steadily above $1,250 support as a whale scoops $1.21 million worth of MKR. Addresses with a 100k to 1 million MKR balance now account for 24.27% of Maker’s total supply. Maker battles a bear flag pattern as bulls gather for an epic weekend move.

Strategic implications of “Liberation Day”
Liberation Day in the United States came with extremely protectionist and inward-looking tariff policy aimed at just about all U.S. trading partners. In this report, we outline some of the more strategic implications of Liberation Day and developments we will be paying close attention to going forward.

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.