EUR/USD Price Forecast: 1.1000 at sight after solid US ADP report

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1058

US private job creation rose by more than anticipated in September, according to ADP.
The US Dollar benefits from a risk-averse environment amid Middle-East tensions.
EUR/USD gains bearish traction in the near term, aims to test the 1.1000 mark.

The EUR/USD pair recovered from a weekly low of 1.1045 posted on Tuesday, with market players maintaining a cautious stance amid United States (US) macroeconomic data. The focus this week is on US employment figures, with several related figures scheduled throughout the week ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report to be out on Friday.

The country released the JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday, which showed job openings unexpectedly jumped by 329K from an upward revised 7.711 million in July to 8.040 million in August, providing near-term support to the US Dollar. Additionally, the US just published the ADP survey, which showed the private sector added 143K in September, better than the 120K anticipated. The August reading was upwardly revised from 99K to 103K.

Earlier in the day, the Eurozone reported that the August Unemployment Rate held steady at 6.4%, as expected.

Meanwhile, the USD benefited from a risk-averse environment amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Cross-attacks between Israel and Lebanon escalated over the weekend and continue to affect financial markets. Oil prices jumped, pushing investors away from high-yielding assets and favoring USD gains in the near term.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is bearish, trading at the lower end of Tuesday’s range. The daily chart shows the pair trades below a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently providing dynamic resistance in the 1.1100 price zone. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, have lost their upward strength but hold far below the current. Finally, technical indicators maintain their bearish slopes, gaining downward traction below their midlines, which is usually a sign of additional losses ahead.

In the near term, according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the downside. A firmly bearish 20 SMA is coming close to cross directionless 100 and 200 SMAs to the downside, a strong selling signal. Even further, technical indicators grind lower after a consolidative stage within negative levels, anticipating another leg south without confirming it just yet.

Support levels: 1.1040 1.1000 1.0960

Resistance levels: 1.1110 1.1150 1.1200

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD seems vulnerable near 0.6800, 10-month low amid bullish USD

AUD/USD languishes near a 10-month low during the Asian session on Friday, awaiting a break below 0.6800 before the next leg up amid a bullish US Dollar. Firming Fed rate-hike expectations, along with fading hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, help the USD hold gains at its highest level since April 2025. Moreover, the RBA’s dovish tilt undermines the Aussie and backs the case for further losses.

USD/JPY bulls turn cautious near 160.00 amid intervention risks

USD/JPY enters a bullish consolidation phase around its highest level since early September as bulls turn cautious amid intervention risk near 160.00. Meanwhile, the downside seems cushioned as the wide US-Japan interest rate gap keeps the Yen carry trade active. Furthermore, the possibility of a jumbo Fed rate hike and Middle East uncertainties hold the US Dollar near a 19-month top, supporting the currency pair.

Gold sticks to gains above $3,900; bulls lack conviction as Fed and Iran risks support USD

Gold clings to modest recovery gains above the $3,900 mark during the Asian session, snapping its three-day losing streak to the lowest level since late September set the previous day. The US Dollar takes a breather after a strong three-day rally to its highest level since April 2025, offering some support to the commodity. However, firming US Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations and Middle East uncertainties continue to support the Greenback. This keeps a lid on any further upside for the precious metal.

Bitcoin slips below $70,000 for the first time since August

Bitcoin is attracting some serious sellers, pushing it below $70,000 on Friday after an over 3% decline the previous day. The Crypto King is down over 5% so far this week, and a bearish close could mark its sixth consecutive week of losses. The technical outlook for Bitcoin is bearish, with sellers tightening their grip despite overextending the downtrend to oversold levels.

Asian stocks post mixed results amid Nvidia leadership turmoil, Anthropic IPO buzz

Asian stocks post mixed results on Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index climbing 0.91% to around 61,370 and China’s Shanghai Composite rising 0.22% to 3,660. Conversely, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.82% to 23,810, while South Korea’s KOSPI declined 0.49% to near 5,320.

What the US CPI headline doesn’t tell you about inflation

Brent crude has fallen about a third since mid-October on hopes the Iran war is ending, but diesel, freight and fertiliser costs haven't followed. Those costs reach US consumer prices in stages through 2027 and could keep inflation high after gasoline gets cheaper.