The US Nonfarm Payroll report couldn't have been more disappointing that what it was this Friday, indicating the US economy created just 142,000 new jobs and a huge fall in wages in September, the worse reading in over a year. To complete the day, the country's factory orders fell 1.7% in August, the biggest drop since December 2014, and the tenth consecutive year-over-year decline.
All of a sudden, the US economic recovery is not such, and a rate hike is out of the table for this 2015, with Chinese woes becoming more relevant than ever, as further declines in there will continue fueling fears of a stronger setback in the US. And while the situation is not the brightest in Europe, latest manufacturing figures have been in line with steady growth in the third quarter, not to mention, ECB's President has shocked the markets a couple of weeks ago, when he said that the Central Bank is not actually considering an extension of it stimulus program.
So, what now for the EUR/USD pair? Overall, the downside seems limited, but at least from a technical point of view, the pair is not yet confirming an upward continuation rally. With a rate hike in the US out of the picture, and stocks worldwide plummeting, which should support some EUR demand amid being taken as a funding currency, there are little chances to see the pair returning towards the 1.1000 region during the upcoming months, unless the FED goes nuts and rises rates anyway.
View the Live chart of the EUR/USD
But the daily chart shows that the price is unable to hold above 1.1300, and hovers around a horizontal 20 SMA, whilst a daily descendant trend line coming from 1.1713, reached last August, caps the upside around 1.1330. In the same chart, the technical indicators aim higher, but in neutral territory, lacking enough momentum to confirm additional gains. The weekly chart shows that the pair is closing below previous weekly opening at 1.1329, although the 20 SMA has attracted buyers at 1.1100 whilst the Momentum indicator presents a more constructive stance, heading higher above its 100 level.
The key is now the 1.1460 area that may be reached next week on a break above the mentioned descendant trend line, as the pair has stalled several times around it ever since last May. Investors may decide to re-buy the greenback around the level, which may then signal a continued range trading in between 1.1080 and the level until a clearer macro picture surges. But it the level gets broken, chances are of a continued advance, with the next target now at the 1.1600 figure.
Failure to break above the trend line, and a retracement back below the 1.1200 level during next week, will probably signal additional EUR weakness, and discourage buyers, pointing for a test of the critical support area around 1.1080/1.1120.
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