EUR/USD Forecast: No to austerity won, Varoufakis resigns anyway


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The common currency has practically filled the weekly opening gap against the greenback, being on demand ever since starting the day below the 1.1000 level, following news that the Greek referendum ended with a victory of the "no." The surprise result has gave the Greeks some additional leverage in the negotiations with its creditors that was reinforced with the resign of the Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis.  The result however, will hardly touch the heart of Mrs. Lagarde, the IMF head, and current market's optimism may well reverse as negotiations begin.

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Having been as low as 1.0969, the EUR/USD pair recovered up to 1.1095 from where it was rejected. The 4 hours chart shows that the price was unable to extend beyond its 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator maintains a neutral stance, flat around the 100 level, and the RSI indicator aims higher, around 43, all of which maintains the upside limited. 

The 1.1050 level has largely proved its strength, so a break below it should lead to additional declines, back towards the 1.1000 figure. Below this last, the 1.0950/60 region is the next probable bearish target. A recovery above 1.1120 on the other hand, is required to confirm an upward continuation, targeting then the 1.1160 price zone.

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