EUR/USD Forecast: German inflation to set the tone


Swiss Franc weakness is once again giving the EUR a lift, with the EUR/USD pair trading around 1.1300 as the EUR/CHF surges again above 1.0300. German unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in January, the lowest in record, whilst the number of people out of work declined by 8.9K against an expected drop of 10K. In a couple of hours, Germany will release its local inflation figures, expected quite negative both monthly and yearly basis. The EUR/USD pair is on hold ahead of the news, as another positive reading from Germany main help the pair continue advancing. 

Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the price struggles around the 38.2% retracement of the latest bearish run at 1.1305 where the pair also has its 20 SMA. Indicators had corrected overbought conditions now bouncing from their midlines, leaving a mild bullish short term tone. Some follow through above the current level, particularly if German inflation beats expectations, should see the pair advancing up to 1.1365, while if above this last, next bullish target comes at 1.1400. The daily low stands at 1.1261, but it will take a break below 1.1250, 23.6% retracement of the same rally, to confirm a downward continuation towards the 1.1200 figure.

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