EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.0770 on Dollar selling
EUR/USD manages to regain extra upside traction on the back of the renewed sell-off in the Greenback, reaching fresh daily highs in the 1.0770 region, or. two-day peaks.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
On the upside, EUR/USD is projected to face first resistance at the May high of 1.0812 (May 3), which comes before the intermediate 100-day SMA of 1.0834 and the April top of 1.0885 (April 9). North of here is the March peak of 1.0981 (March 8), prior to the weekly high of 1.0998 (January 11), all before reaching the psychological threshold of 1.1000.
Looking south, a break of the 2024 bottom of 1.0601 (April 16) might indicate a return to the November 2023 low of 1.0516 (November 1). Once this region is cleared, spot might dispute the weekly low of 1.0495 (October 13, 2023) ahead of the 2023 bottom of 1.0448 (October 3) and the round milestone of 1.0400.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair entering some consolidative range. Against that, there is an immediate up-barrier at 1.0812, seconded by 1.0885. Meanwhile, 1.0735 offers early support, ahead of 1.0649 and 1.0601. The relative strength index (RSI) lost momentum and receded to the sub-50 zone.
Fundamental Overview
The EUR/USD pair fell to the lower end of its weekly range, extending the slide by a few pips yet holding above the 1.0700 mark during the European session. The US Dollar benefited from a souring market mood, as reflected by the poor performance of global equities. Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday, leading to choppy trading and further uncertainty in its Asian and European rivals. As we approach Thursday’s opening, United States (US) indexes trade with a soft tone and aim to start the day without much changes, although near monthly highs.
Financial markets are still seeking a catalyst after acknowledging that central banks will maintain interest rates on hold for longer than previously anticipated. Growth has become less of a concern, with global signs of tepid recovery. Inflation, on the other hand, has decelerated its slide and turned a bit more worrisome, but it is close enough to central banks’ goals to spook the odds for rate hikes.
The European macroeconomic calendar had nothing relevant to offer, as several countries celebrated a bank holiday, Ascension Day. As for the US, the country released Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 3, which unexpectedly jumped to 231K, much worse than the 210K anticipated. The USD shed some ground with the news, with EUR/USD recovering to the 1.0760 region.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Optimism prevailed, hurting US Dollar demand Premium
The EUR/USD pair advanced for a third consecutive week, accumulating a measly 160 pips in that period. The pair trades around 1.0760 ahead of the close after tumultuous headlines failed to trigger a clear directional path.
EUR/USD Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.0770 on Dollar selling
EUR/USD manages to regain extra upside traction on the back of the renewed sell-off in the Greenback, reaching fresh daily highs in the 1.0770 region, or. two-day peaks.
GBP/USD hovers around 1.2500 post-BoE
GBP/USD alternates gains with losses around the 1.2500 neighbourhood amidst extra weakness in the Dollar, while market participants continue to digest the BoE event.
USD/JPY grinds higher on US exceptionalism, weak Japanese data
USD/JPY pushes relentlessly higher as market forces overcome intervention attempts. The US Dollar is strengthening across the board as interest rates in the US diverge from the global trend. Weak Japanese wage data puts a dent in BoJ plan to hike interest rates to prop up the Yen.
Gold improves to multi-day highs past $2,330
XAU/USD now gathers fresh steam and advances to the highest level in many sessions north of the $2,330 mark per troy ounce on the back of further selling pressure hurting the Greenback as well as mixed US yields.
Oil posts modest gains around $79.00 on US crude stock draw
Western Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $78.95 on Thursday. The black gold recovers losses after a surprise crude stock draw in the United States.
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EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2024
In the EURUSD 2024 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, anticipates gains for the next couple of months. The Eurozone economy would need to show steady signs of recovery to prevent EUR/USD from collapsing below 1.0390 in the year's second half. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0447 and as high as 1.1275 throughout 2023, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR EUR/USD
There is a note of color that would stand out in the upcoming months: the US 2024 presidential election that will take place on November 5. The contest nomination will start as soon as January and run until June. The pinch of drama comes from Donald Trump’s desire to represent Republicans once again. A potential second government of Donald Trump could mean higher inflationary pressures as Trump could reintroduce tariffs on imports and push against the agreements between China and the Biden administration.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.