- EUR/USD fluctuates above 1.0800 in the European morning.
- The pair could extend its weekly slide if 1.0800 support fails.
- The USD could lose its strength in case risk mood improves ahead of the weekend.
After rising above 1.0850 during the European trading hours on Thursday, EUR/USD reversed its direction and fell toward 1.0820, closing the fourth consecutive day in negative territory. The pair holds steady above 1.0800 early Friday but the technical selling pressure could increase if this support fails.
Euro PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.43% | 0.02% | 0.91% | 0.78% | 1.34% | 0.55% | 0.61% | |
| EUR | -0.43% | -0.44% | 0.53% | 0.35% | 0.95% | 0.13% | 0.18% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | 0.44% | 0.82% | 0.79% | 1.40% | 0.55% | 0.61% | |
| JPY | -0.91% | -0.53% | -0.82% | -0.15% | 0.43% | -0.35% | -0.30% | |
| CAD | -0.78% | -0.35% | -0.79% | 0.15% | 0.52% | -0.23% | -0.17% | |
| AUD | -1.34% | -0.95% | -1.40% | -0.43% | -0.52% | -0.83% | -0.73% | |
| NZD | -0.55% | -0.13% | -0.55% | 0.35% | 0.23% | 0.83% | 0.06% | |
| CHF | -0.61% | -0.18% | -0.61% | 0.30% | 0.17% | 0.73% | -0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Upbeat PMI data from Germany and the Eurozone helped the Euro find demand in the first half of the day on Thursday. Later in the American session, the data from the US showed that the business activity in the private sector expanded at its strongest pace in two years, with S&P Global Composite PMI jumping to 54.4 in May's flash estimate from 51.3 in April.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose more than 1% and Wall Street's main indexes turned south after this data as investors started to price in a weaker probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September. In turn, the US Dollar gathered strength against its major rivals and forced EUR/USD to erase its daily gains.
April Durable Goods Orders, which is unlikely to trigger a noticeable reaction, will be the only data featured in the US economic calendar on Friday. Hence, investors will keep a close eye on risk perception heading into the weekend.
A rebound in US stock indices following the sharp decline seen on Thursday could make it difficult for the USD to preserve its strength and open the door for a rebound in EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD faces key support area at 1.0810-1.0800, where the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) meets the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend. If the pair falls below that level and confirms it as resistance, 1.0750 (200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0700 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) could be seen as next bearish targets.
On the upside, 1.0820 (lower limit of the ascending channel) aligns as immediate resistance. If the pair returns within the ascending channel by flipping that level into support, 1.0845 (20-period SMA) and 1.0870 (mid-point of the ascending channel) could act as next resistance levels.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD Price Analysis: Sideways trend continues unfolding
AUD/USD is in a down-leg within a narrow trading range. The pair is probably in a sideways trend with the odds favoring an extension of that trend. A decisive break above or below the top or bottom of the range would generate follow-through targets.
EUR/USD: Central banks’ decisions will keep taking their toll
The EUR/USD pair slid below the 1.0700 mark for the first time in over a month on Friday, as the US Dollar surged on the back of risk aversion. The dismal mood prevailed throughout the week, with a short-lived exception on Wednesday when softer-than-anticipated United States inflation brought a breath of fresh air.
Gold gains ground as traders dial up Fed rate cut bets for September
Gold registered limited gains this week, supported by safe-haven flows and soft inflation data from the US. In the absence of high-impact macroeconomic data releases ahead, investors will pay close attention to technical developments in XAU/USD and comments from Federal Reserve officials.
Bitcoin active addresses hit lowest level in five years, BTC ranges below $67,000
Bitcoin, the largest asset by market capitalization, has noted a decline in its active address count per data from Glassnode. A decline in active addresses is typical at a time during a surge in Bitcoin transaction fees.
Week ahead: RBA, SNB and BoE next to decide, CPI and PMI data also on tap
It will be another central-bank-heavy week with the RBA, SNB and BoE. Retail sales will be the highlight in the United States. Plenty of other data also on the way, including flash PMIs and UK CPI.