EUR/USD Forecast: Advancing ahead of Fed’s decision

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1821

• US Durable Goods Orders surprised on the downside, Consumer Confidence surged.
• The US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on monetary policy on Wednesday.
• EUR/USD has reached a fresh weekly high, bullish momentum limited.

The EUR/USD pair advanced to 1.1840, its highest for the week. The dollar declined against all of its major rivals in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. The greenback fell despite increased demand for safety, which resulted in falling equities and easing government bond yields.  

Dismal US data added pressure on the American currency, as Durable Goods Orders were up 0.8% MoM in June, much worse than the 2.1% expected. The core reading, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft, surged 0.5%, also missing expectations. On a positive note, CB Consumer Confidence improved to 129.1 from an upwardly revised 128.9 in June.

On Wednesday, the focus will be on the Fed. The central bank is expected to maintain its monetary policy on hold while drawing the first lines on soon-to-come tapering, probably for the final quarter of the year. Worth noting that the rising number of coronavirus contagions in the US may pose a risk that the Fed would not ignore.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair trades near the mentioned daily high, positive in the near-term. The 4-hour chart shows that it has extended its advance above its 100 SMA for the first time in almost two months, while the 20 SMA slowly grinds higher below the latter. Technical indicators have lost bullish strength, retreating from intraday highs but well into positive ground. The recovery can extend to 1.1920 if the pair crosses through the daily high with some momentum.

Support levels: 1.1795 1.1750 1.1705  

Resistance levels: 1.1840 1.1885 1.1920

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