EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1325
- Busy macroeconomic calendar ahead with updates on growth and monetary policy scheduled.
- Concerns about the Union's growth keeping demand for the EUR subdued.
The EUR/USD pair closed the week with gains amid poor demand for the greenback throughout the week and hopes that the UK will avoid a hard Brexit, which sent the Pound sharply up, weighing on the American currency. The shared currency, however, posted a modest advance, with the pair settling around 1.1330, as the Union's economic downturn made it unattractive. On Friday, the EU released unimpressive February inflation figures, up by 0.3% MoM and 1.5% YoY as expected. US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization posted modest advances in February, up by 0.1% and 78.2% respectively, although the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March beat expectations, jumping to 97.8 in March, falling short anyway on triggering dollar's demand by the end of the week.
Monday will be light in terms of macroeconomic releases, as the EU will release January Trade Balance while the US will unveil the NAHB Housing Market Index, both minor reports that usually don't affect the price. The week, however, will have plenty of macro-action, with the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, fresh updates on EU growth in the form of Markit PMI, and more UK Parliamentary discussions on Brexit.
Measuring the latest daily decline from 1.1419 to the yearly low set this March at 1.1175, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement stands at 1.1330, a level that the pair has pressured since mid last week, but so far, capped the upside. The daily chart shows that the pair has spent the last three trading days seesawing around a directionless 20 DMA, while below bearish 100 and 200 DMA. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart hovered around their midlines, lacking directional strength, all of which keeps the risk skewed to the downside, although an upward corrective movement is not out of the cards, particularly if the pair can advance beyond 1.1375, now the immediate resistance. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, a modest bullish stance prevails as the 20 SMA maintains its bullish slope below the current level, providing a dynamic support. The same chart shows that an attempt to extend gains was rejected by the 200 SMA, also that technical indicators are gaining upward traction above their midlines.
Support levels: 1.1300 1.1265 1.1220
Resistance levels: 1.1375 1.1420 1.1460
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