The Eurozone’s preliminary HICP print for March will dominate data releases this week. With EUR TWI down more than 15% from its highs, investors will be looking for early indications that Eurozone inflation is starting to turn less negative again.
While we doubt that the ECB will change its view on the economy just yet, chances are that EUR could respond positively to evidence that the disinflation trend in the Eurozone is coming to an end.
Upbeat Eurozone data has been supporting the single currency recently but lingering uncertainty about Greece seemed to be pushing it in the opposite direction. PM Tsipras is expected to send a detailed list of reform proposals to the country’s creditors next Monday in order to unlock fresh funding.
Our expectation is that Athens will honour its pledges and investors’ uneasiness could abate further, helping EUR. Needless to say, a surprise return of the Greek brinkmanship (not our central case) should add to the headwinds for the EUR.
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